WHETHER or not Scotland votes to become independent in a second referendum may depend on the question asked, according to a new study.

Research published on the LSE’s blog today (October 5) suggests that the wording of the question may influence voters enough to swing the result in favour of the Yes or No camp.

The study was written by three political professors from across the UK, John Garry, a professor of political behaviour at Queen’s University in Belfast, Rob Johns, a professor in politics at the University of Essex, and Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester.

In May and June of this year, in conjunction with the British Election Study (BES), the three political professors randomly assigned Scottish respondents to the BES internet panel (2837 in total) one of three questions.

The National:

Source: Authors' flowchart of the three questions asked on independence, LSE blog.

The first, the question used in the 2014 ballot, was: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”

The second, the SNP’s preferred option seven years ago, was: “Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?”

The third, which has been used by the pro-UK Scotland in Union group in their polling, was: “Should Scotland remain in the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?”

The results showed that the wording of the question impacted on the results of the survey. The “do you agree” question returned a pro-independence majority of slightly above 50%.

In contrast, the “remain/leave” formulation returned a solid lead of around 56% for the Unionists, while the more neutral question was somewhere in the middle.

The National:

Source: Authors’ analysis of data from the Scottish Election Study, 2021, LSE blog.

The difference in results obtained by asking Unionists’ preferred question and the question the SNP favoured in 2014 are “just about statistically significant” and “certainly politically significant”, the authors say.

“If voters are evenly divided, as they are currently on independence, then even seemingly innocuous matters such as the question options could change the course of a nation’s history.”

They go on: “The question does not appear for the first time on the ballot paper. Rather, it can define the whole debate. And the terms ‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ are so potent that, if they are the frame for ‘indyref2’, things could look very different from the Yes/No battle of ‘indyref1’.”

Commenting on Twitter, Ford added: “Our results suggest those thinking about how to put the question of independence to Scots again in the future should think very carefully about the exact wording used on the ballot, and the impacts these have on how Scottish voters understand the issue before them.”