SCOTLAND is facing up a four-fold spike in Covid-19 cases in the next fortnight under a “best scenario” model as a result of the start of COP26, schools returning after the half term break and more mixing indoors.
Official modelling published by the Scottish Government highlights the prospect of a massive increase in infections which could see more than double the number of patients with the virus needing hospital care at a time when the NHS is already under immense pressure.
Scientists took into account the arrival at the end of this month in Glasgow of thousands of people from all over the world for the climate change summit as well as pupils going back to the classroom after the week long holiday, meaning more closer interactions between children, most of whom are not vaccinated.
The document set out a worse, central and best case scenario based on existing levels of infection, the transmission rate (or R number), vaccination figures, people’s behaviour and the use of face masks.
“All three scenarios account for the end of the half-term period and the start of the COP26 conference beginning in Glasgow 31st October,” stated the report which covered the period to November 7.
Tables put infection levels at between 17,000 and 44,000 daily infections (up from 2902 on Friday last week) in the worst case scenario, while the figures for central and best range from 11,000 to 17,000 and 2000 to 11,000.
The study concedes there is “a large amount of uncertainty as to the potential impact on infections” and considers the likely impact on people needing to go to hospital and the number needing intensive care.
Under the worse case scenario hospital cases could rise to up to 2200 (with 190 in intensive care), while the upper range for central and best are 1300 (with 140 in intensive care) and 750 (with 110 in intensive care). On Thursday, 894 people were in hospital with recently confirmed Covid-19, down 23 on the previous day, with 60 in intensive care, up two.
The report was published after the emergence of a new mutation of the Delta variant which may be more transmissable than the original Delta and after one of the First Minister’s advisors warned that coronavirus restrictions may have to be reimposed in the aftermath of the COP26 climate conference.
Professor Devi Sridhar said she believes the 13-day UN summit will lead to an increase in Covid-19 cases and put further pressure on the health service, triggering the “need for further restrictions”.
Sridhar, who sits on the Scottish Government’s Covid-19 advisory group, tweeted the warning in response to a question about whether COP26 will make the Covid situation in Scotland worse and lead to new curbs on freedoms.
The professor of global public health at Edinburgh University wrote: “I could be wrong (and hope I am) but yes.
“A mass event (with major movement of people in & out) with an infectious virus will cause an increase in cases. While in the case of Covid will put stress on limited health services. Which triggers need for further restrictions.”
The summit is being held at the Scottish Event Campus, with up to 30,000 people travelling to the city between October 31 and November 12.
Sridhar’s comments echo those of another Scottish Government adviser, Professor Linda Bauld, who said earlier this month that holding the large-scale event is “risky”.
The NHS is already under severe pressure as it continues to treat Covid patients, catch up with treatments paused earlier in the pandemic and face absences from staff who may be ill or have to isolate as a result of Covid.
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NHS Lanarkshire on Friday said it was putting scheduled hospital treatments on hold, including some for cancer patients, as it moves to its highest risk level – dubbed “Code Black”.
The military is now providing “additional support” in hospitals in the area with the Army also providing assistance in other areas and to the Scottish Ambulance Service.
Meanwhile, doctors have said that pandemic restrictions should be reimposed to help quell surging cases of the coronavirus.
Dr Eleanor Gaunt, a virologist at Edinburgh University, told The Times yesterday that the pressure on Scottish hospitals was only going to get worse, and called on ministers to reintroduce some restrictions to limit Covid case numbers.
“If you look at the causes that are underlying that, it looks as though this is due to staff sickness and staff having to self-isolate, and bed shortages as well, and all of those factors are directly attributable to high case numbers of coronavirus,” she said.
“This is something we have intervention strategies to bring back under control and … in these areas and under this pressure, it’s something we need to consider enacting now because it’s only going to get worse.”
Scottish Labour’s health spokeswoman Jackie Baillie (above) said: “These deeply worrying projections show Scotland could be on the brink of another full-scale Covid crisis unless action is taken.”
The Scottish Government said: “As part of the code of conduct, delegates will be asked to adhere to enhanced Covid measures in the COP26 Blue Zone, such as physical distancing and the wearing of face masks unless seated. All other national and local restrictions will continue to apply outside the Blue Zone. We have no current plans to introduce further restrictions.”
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