A HUGE new Survation poll predicts Boris Johnson, Scottish Secretary Alister Jack, Scottish Tory leader Douglas Ross and FOUR Tory Cabinet ministers will lose their seats at the next General Election.
The study, commissioned by campaign group 38 Degrees, saw 10,000 people across the UK asked about their voting intentions.
The result sees Labour on 41%, six points ahead of the Tories on 35% - with the Tories estimated to lose around 100 seats.
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According to multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) analysis, the Tories would win 255 seats and Labour would secure 309, 11 short of a majority. The SNP would gain seven seats and lose one, Survation predicts, giving the party 54 MPs overall.
Johnson and Jack would lose their seats – as would COP26 president Alok Sharma, Welsh secretary Simon Hart and Environment Secretary George Eustice.
At the same time, Scottish Tory leader Ross would also lose his Moray seat.
The study comes after an Opinium poll for the Sunday Mail suggested the Tories would lose all six of their Scottish MPs in the next General Election.
According to Professor Christopher Hanretty of Royal Holloway University, who was involved in the MRP analysis, older voters are most concerned about recent Tory sleaze allegations and reports of Downing Street parties while Covid restrictions were in place.
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The study’s results in the north of England will cause concern for the party, too, as the Conservatives are predicted to hold just three of their 40 “red wall” seats.
Polling expert Sir John Curtice has warned against reading too much into the split between Labour and Tory support in the polls – suggesting Sir Keir Starmer has much further to go to solidify any support.
“We are talking about a collapse in the Tory vote, not a revival of the Labour Party,” he clarified in the i.
“The point is that Labour still have to make any kind of significant advance in their own popularity. This is all about the Tories going down the tubes.”
The survey also asked respondents to consider whether UK Government figures follow the seven themes of public life, known as the Nolan Principles.
The principles include objectivity, leadership, honesty, integrity, accountability, openness and selflessness.
Across the board, respondents in Scotland were most likely to say it’s “extremely unlikely” that the UK Government upholds these principles.
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Some 47 Scottish constituencies featured in the list of the 50 UK areas least likely to think the Westminster government follows these principles.
A spokesperson for the Scottish Tories defended the party against the research, telling The Courier: “The Scottish Conservatives support the Nolan principles of selflessness, integrity, openness, objectivity, accountability, honesty and leadership.
“We are Scotland’s real alternative to the SNP and the only party strong enough to challenge the nationalists all over Scotland, as we demonstrated in this year’s election by winning 100,000 more votes than ever before and being the only pro-UK party to move forward.”
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