THE SNP are predicted to take nearly all of the Scottish seats if the proposals for 2023 boundary changes go ahead, new analysis has revealed.
Election Maps UK predicted that the SNP will take a total of 55 out of 57 seats, an increase of seven. The only seats they are expected not to take are Orkey and Shetland (which will be taken by the LibDems) and Edinburgh Southern which will be held by Labour.
Overall in the UK, Labour will gain 101 seats, bringing them to 296. This means they beat the Tories who are predicted to lose 119 seats, leaving them with 259.
The LibDems would gain nine seats, taking them to 17. PLC are to gain two seats, taking them to four, and the Greens will stay the same with one seat.
Under the plans detailed in the Boundary Commission Scotland report, Scotland’s number of MPs will be cut from 59 to 57, while Wales will lose eight representatives and England will gain 10.
Current polling projected onto the Provisional 2023 Boundaries*
— Election Maps UK 🎄 (@ElectionMapsUK) December 30, 2021
LAB: 296 (+101)
CON: 259 (-119)
SNP: 55 (+7)
LDM: 17 (+9)
PLC: 4 (+2)
GRN: 1 (=)
Changes w/ notional 2019 result.
*subject to several reviews and changes yet hence why they're not used in my regular projections pic.twitter.com/2FxIvjdIg6
There will be two further rounds of consultation next year before the BCS submits its final recommendations to the Speaker of the UK Parliament by July 2023.
The Boundary Commission proposals include taking Douglas Ross’s Moray seat and splitting it between three constituencies.
One of those will be the new Gordon and Moray South – currently largely represented by SNP MP Richard Thomson at Westminster. The Scottish Tory leader is not happy with the body’s decision to “carve up” his seat, although he does not intend to stand for UK Parliament at the next General Election.
SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford’s seat of Ross, Skye and Lochaber will be changed to Highland Central and redrawn, bringing in other areas from north-east Drumnadrochit, down south to Fort William.
Changes in Glasgow are likely to result in an MP being lost altogether. The most likely to be affected by the change are SNP MP Carol Monaghan, whose Glasgow North West constituency would be partially taken into the new Glasgow West seat, and SNP MP Anne McLaughlin, with Glasgow North East set to be split into other areas.
It was thought that changes in Glasgow were likely to result in an SNP MP being lost altogether but the SNP are expected to take the new Glasgow West seat.
READ MORE: The Scottish seats set to change significantly under Westminster's plans
The next UK general election is currently pencilled in for May 2nd 2024.
This is consistent with the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, a piece of legislation passed in 2011 and which automatically schedules elections for the first Thursday in May of the fifth year following the previous general election.
However, if the previous general election took place before the first Thursday in May, then the following election is scheduled for the May of the fourth year of that government’s term.
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