THE alleged timing of the release of Sue Gray’s widely anticipated report has flip-flopped more than the UK Government on any given day.
First, we heard reports it would be pushed to the end of the week, then it had been signed off and awaiting final checks, then it was back to the drawing board again and Downing Street was adamant they hadn’t had sight of it - so where is it and when will we see it?
The short answer; we don’t know, but we can take a few educated guesses.
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According to the latest emerging from Whitehall, the Gray report is imminent but undergoing checks by Met and government lawyers, which is causing the hold-up.
Health Secretary Savid Javid was asked if the report was being deliberately delayed but avoided giving a straight answer.
It wasn’t going to come out on Thursday whilst Holocaust Memorial Day is underway, rightly, as tributes are paid to the millions of people who died. It’s also unlikely it will be released on Friday, a one-line whip day in the House of Commons where most MPs are back in their constituencies.
The pundits choice is Monday, but that isn't guaranteed, and we could be waiting longer.
During Business Questions on Thursday morning Jacob Rees-Mogg (pictured) told MPs that he believed the House should be “told first” when the report is released, and the Commons doesn’t sit at the weekend.
If Johnson was due to make a statement on Friday, we would already know about it by now as it would appear on the Commons calendar. At the time of writing, there are only Private Member’s Bills scheduled to go ahead on Friday. Rees-Mogg also confirmed this and added no urgent questions had been requested.
MPs are expecting time to scrutinise the report’s contents ahead of any statement given by the Prime Minister, which is expected to be given in parliament. Whether or not Downing Street sticks to this remains to be seen.
Essentially, when the report is released it’s understood the PM will have a couple of hours to ingest the contents, and then it will be released to the public.
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Will the report be released in full?
There has also been speculation that a redacted or summary version of the report will be released instead of the full document. Johnson said that he will publish the full report, but given that he has a penchant for reneging on commitments this is another piece of the story up in the air.
Certainly, it would be a mistake to publish a red-pencilled or shortened report as it would instantly spark claims of a cover-up. Whether or not the rumoured photographs of Johnson and officials in Downing Street surrounded by bottles of wine make it into the public sphere is also unknown.
Johnson on a site visit in North Wales amid speculation of the release of Gray's report
What will happen when the report finally comes out?
There are two ways this can go - although with Johnson, don’t rule out a wildcard option.
If the report links Johnson to rule-breaking or proves that he has misled parliament, it will trigger the Tory MPs currently sitting on the fence to send letters of no confidence to the 1922 backbench committee.
If enough find a backbone, this would mean a vote would be called - if the PM loses he would be forced out, and if he wins he will have 12 months of immunity from a fresh premiership challenge. It's clear by now he won't resign of his own volition.
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If the report doesn’t link specifically to Johnson and is wider - on the drinking culture of Downing Street - then civil servants will take the fall. The Tories will clear house, blame it on Number 10 staff and Johnson will continue as Prime Minister, but he won’t make it to the next General Election.
Whatever happens, the report is likely to prompt fury and outcry from the public, and Johnson will be lucky if he manages to cling on.
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