PRIME ministerial resignations are not rare – four of the six preceding Boris Johnson resigned from office. It has, however, been almost 60 years since Harold Macmillan was the last incumbent of 10 Downing Street to resign over a series of scandals.
That Johnson could become the first to do so in more than half a century will come as little surprise to observers of British politics.
This has been a tough winter for Johnson. Revelations of multiple parties taking place in No 10, in violation of national lockdowns and social distancing rules, while ordinary people were unable to comfort dying loved ones, have rocked the Prime Minister. While his MPs have mounted increasingly bizarre defences of him, his public standing has collapsed.
At the beginning of December, the Conservatives and Labour were neck-and-neck in the polls. Since the onset of “Partygate”, Labour has established a run of strong poll leads. Over the past fortnight, Labour support has averaged at 41%, 10 points ahead of the Conservatives. In a General Election, Labour would likely come very close to winning a majority.
The next General Election is, however, probably years away. This far out, voting intention is a poor guide to what might happen. Labour has more work to do: the latest Redfield & Wilton poll found that 14% of 2019 Tory voters do not know how they would vote now, and just 2% said they intended to vote Labour.
A better guide to what might happen next can be found in the fundamental attributes the public ascribe to the leaders and their parties. Ed Miliband’s Labour led by double digits in many polls in 2013, two years out from the 2015 General Election, but he trailed David Cameron on being “the best prime minister” and his party trailed the Conservatives on economic competence.
In the end, Miliband’s lead melted away. He and his party simply did not have the attributes the public expect in a prime minister and a government, and so they stuck with the devil they knew.
Is Keir Starmer in the same boat? The indication right now is that he may not be. Last May, Johnson’s Conservatives led Labour by 24 points in YouGov’s polling on economic management – that lead has been cut to six points. Labour have reduced the Tory lead on tackling the deficit to nine points, and has established leads on creating jobs (+5), improving living standards (+9), keeping prices down (+9), helping people get on to the housing ladder (+14), and reducing poverty (+27).
With inflation, the cost of living, and broader so-called “pocketbook” issues taking centre stage, these advantages could be crucial in building a sustainable Labour voter coalition. Most tellingly, Starmer now leads Boris Johnson in Ipsos MORI’s “most capable prime minister” tracker, which has been running for 43 years. Since Thatcher, no leader of the opposition has won an election without establishing a lead on this measure. And no leader of the opposition that has established such a lead has failed to become prime minister.
In September 2021, Starmer established a narrow, one-point lead. When “Partygate” kicked off in December, that lead grew to 13 points. It is not an exaggeration to say that the UK-wide polling situation for Labour is now the strongest they’ve had since the financial crisis in 2008.
Of course, things could change. Johnson probably won’t last until the next General Election (though, never say never … ) and Starmer would be facing a different Tory leader. Could Labour’s leads withstand such a shift? Only time will tell, but Johnson’s scandals are now tarnishing not only himself but his party’s brand as well. Tory MPs could end up regretting not pushing him out sooner.
What does this mean for Scottish politics? While Labour have an opportunity to put an end to Tory government at Westminster, they have not benefited north of the Border.
In fact, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross appears to have pulled off a bit of an escapism by calling for the Prime Minister to resign – 80% of Scots (including 60% of Tory voters) think Ross was right to do so, and the latest Scotland-only poll by Savanta ComRes showed practically no change in voting intention since October.
Boris Johnson’s net favourability in Scotland fell to -62, but trust in the Scottish Conservatives has barely shifted and while more voters now see them as a divided party, their other attitudes remain largely the same as last October. This may be a case of public division being no bad thing.
At the same time, Starmer and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar have seen little improvement in their net favourability ratings. Both still trail Nicola Sturgeon, whose continues to dominate the Scottish political scene.
As well as leading in voting intention, the SNP continue to outperform their rivals as most trusted party across every issue polled, and on positive attributes such as understanding the issues facing Scotland and having strong leadership.
In Scotland it is the SNP that will benefit from Johnson’s collapse and toxification of the Tory brand at Westminster. In a UK General Election, they would have a very good shot at wiping out the Tories’ Scottish MPs, and winning 55 or 56 seats in the process. This throws up an interesting scenario for the independence movement.
On current numbers, Labour would fall short of a majority, and would be likely to need SNP votes to form a government.
The Scottish Government intends to hold an independence referendum next year, contingent on friendly court rulings and other events not intervening. Should that kind of good fortune not be forthcoming, we will go into the next UK General Election with a referendum on the line.
With a collapsing Johnson government, a contaminated Tory brand, a resurgent Labour Party at Westminster, and a dominant SNP in Scotland, the scene is set for a perfect electoral storm that forces Labour and the SNP together, and finally brings about a second referendum on Scottish independence.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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