THE Scottish Conservatives would lose more than a quarter of their MSPs if a Holyrood election were held tomorrow, according to a new poll.
The polling suggests Labour would become the second largest party in Holyrood, overtaking the Tories by a single seat (24 vs 23).
The Savanta ComRes data will not bode well for a Conservative party looking to recover its shattered reputation after a string of scandals engulfing their UK leadership, and with local elections on the horizon.
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The results of the survey also suggest that the Greens would see their representation increase significantly, returning a further 5 MSPs to bring their total to 13, according to estimates from Ballot Box Scotland.
Elsewhere it shows the LibDems would gain three seats, Labour would gain two, and the SNP would lose two.
The results would see the SNP have 62 MSPs (now 64), Labour 24 (now 22), the Tories 23 (now 31), the Greens 13 (now 8), and the LibDems 7 (now 4).
Projecting ComRes 10 - 16 Mar (for @TheScotsman) into seats (changes vs 24 - 28 Feb/ vs 2021 Election):
— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) March 18, 2022
SNP ~ 62 (nc / -2)
Labour ~ 24 (+1 / +2)
Conservative ~ 23 (-1 / -8)
Green ~ 13 (-1 / +5)
Lib Dem ~ 7 (+1 / +3)
(Projection caveats: https://t.co/f88QQROnh7) pic.twitter.com/CgNXlD9QLp
This would result in a similar parliamentary make-up as now, with a larger pro-independence majority of 75 MSPs, compared to the current 72.
However, the Savanta ComRes poll for the Scotsman of 1008 voting adults also suggested that, if indyref2 were held tomorrow, then the No side would win.
The poll found that, with don’t knows excluded, 52% of Scots would back remaining in the Union. The Yes side would be slightly behind on 48%.
It is the second poll to show a similar result in recent days. However, a survey of 1000 people normally has a +/-3% margin of error, meaning that these results are far from conclusive.
With don’t knows (7%) included, 49% of Scots said they would vote No, compared to 44% who would vote Yes.
Scots were also asked if they thought that discussions around independence should stop given the war in Ukraine. A majority of respondents (59%) said they should, while 29% said they should go ahead.
A total of 43% of SNP voters and 42% of 2014 Yes voters said the discussions should end.
It comes after the SNP's Westminster leader, Ian Blackford, suggested that Scotland short-term focus should be on the war-torn nation.
However, the majority of those who would vote Yes in indyref2 (57%) said independence discussions should continue.
A majority of those surveyed (52%) also thought that the cost-of-living crisis was enough to halt talks on independence.
However, the plurality of Scots (49%) said that indyref2 should happen in the next five years, with 34% of people saying that it should happen in the next two.
A total of 27% of those asked thought there should “never” be a second vote.
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