Ofgem says energy price cap will be updated quarterly to 'provide market stability'

The regulator said the change would help to “provide the stability needed in the energy market” and that “it is not in anyone’s interest for more suppliers to fail and exit the market”.

It also said Russia’s actions in Ukraine had led to volatility in the global energy market experienced last winter lasting “much longer, with much higher prices for both gas and electricity than ever before”. 

As expected Ofgem warned that as a result of the market conditions, the price cap would have to increase later this month to reflect increased costs.

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However it said that the changes would mean that any fall in wholesale prices would be passed on in full to customers and more quickly with the quarterly price cap.

Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley said: “I know this situation is deeply worrying for many people. As a result of Russia’s actions, the volatility in the energy markets we experienced last winter has lasted much longer, with much higher prices than ever before. And that means the cost of supplying electricity and gas to homes has increased considerably.

“The trade-offs we need to make on behalf of consumers are extremely difficult and there are simply no easy answers right now. Today’s changes ensure the price cap does its job, making sure customers are only paying the real cost of their energy, but also, that it can adapt to the current volatile market.

“We will keep working closely with the Government, consumer groups and with energy companies on what further support can be provided to help with these higher prices.”

This comes just a few days after energy firms Shell and Centrica reported billions in profit. 

In the second quarter of the year, Shell's profits reached a record-breaking £9.5 billion - an increase of £2 billion on their previous record. 

Meanwhile, Centrica saw its operating profits reach £1.34 billion over the first six months of 2022. 

This marked an increase of £262 million compared to the previous year. 

British Gas, however, said operating profits were down by over 40% to £98 million but confirmed that it had taken on an extra 200,000 customers in the last year as rivals went out of business. 

Changes to the price cap come as household energy bills are likely to remain at more than two-and-a-half times their pre-crisis levels until at least 2024, according to latest predictions.

Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight said bills will hit a staggering £3359 per year from October for the average household, and not fall below that level until at least the end of next year.

The price cap on energy bills, which regulates what 24 million British households pay, will hit £3616 from January and rise further to £3729 from April, it said.

It will begin to fall after that, but only slowly, reaching £3569 from July before hitting £3470 for the last three months of 2023.

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The latest predictions are hundreds of pounds above previous forecasts from Cornwall Insight, but are slightly lower what another consultancy, BFY, has predicted.

In May, the Government announced an energy costs support package – worth £400 per household – in response to predictions that bills would rise to £2800 for the average household in October.

The package also promised extra support for more vulnerable households.

Last month, Cornwall Insight predicted that annual energy bills would typically rise to £3244 from October and £3363 from January, but circumstances have changed significantly since then.

The latest forecasts come after the Kremlin further strangled the flow of gas to Europe.

While the UK gets very little of its gas directly from Russia, the price paid here is determined by what happens across the Continent.

If the predictions come to pass they will put enormous pressure on already squeezed households.

It would be a near-doubling of today’s record price cap which at £1971 is already hundreds of pounds more than the previous high.

Although it is still early days for the January prediction, analysts already have most of the data they need to accurately forecast October’s rise.

National Energy Action director of policy and advocacy Peter Smith said: “Ofgem moving ahead now with passing price cap changes on to households quarterly rather than every six months wasn’t necessary and unfortunately means further significant price increases in January are inevitable.

“Average annual bills are already predicted to increase by £1200 a year – a 177% increase since last October. Now, householders can expect further hikes just after Christmas, in the middle of heating season when energy costs are typically at their highest. 

“January is also usually a time of increased mental health problems and further hikes in bills will sadly lead to increased misery and huge anxiety for energy consumers across Great Britain, particularly for the poorest households. It’s disappointing that Ofgem has not listened to these concerns. They could have used their discretion to offset this avoidable outcome by starting the reforms in April when energy demand starts to fall. 

“This change also strengthens the growing calls for deeper price protection for the poorest households, something Ofgem can and must help support.”

Head of energy policy at Citizens Advice Gillian Cooper said: “Something that’s added to all our bills is the cost of supplier failures. Changing to a quarterly price cap should limit the risk of any more suppliers going bust, which is a good thing. But our bills are already incredibly high and still rising. 

“The Government was right to bring in financial support for people, but it may not be enough to keep many families afloat. It must be ready to act again before winter draws in.

“Ofgem must make sure suppliers are helping customers who are struggling to pay. It should hold energy companies to account so people aren’t chased by debt collectors or pushed onto prepayment meters when they can’t keep up with bills.”