Scottish Tories to fall below Labour in Holyrood vote, Panelbase poll says

A Panelbase poll found that, although the party’s support had increased slightly compared to earlier in 2022, Douglas Ross’s party would lose as many as seven of their MSPs.

Professor John Curtice estimated that, if the Tories won 19% of the constituency vote and 20% of the list vote as the polling predicted, they would return 24 MSPs.

This would be seven fewer than the 31 which Ross managed to win in the 2021 elections. It would also potentially see them drop to third place behind Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour.

READ MORE: Support to rejoin the EU soars among Scottish voters in new poll

After a poor 2022 local elections which saw them lose 62 seats, the Scottish Tories pointed the finger at Boris Johnson – although Ross was told to "own" the result.

The slight boost in the Holyrood polling compared to January may boost hopes in the party that Johnson's exit will help them see a resurgence north of the Border. 

Curtice’s analysis of the Panelbase poll, reported in The Times, said that Labour would win 25 MSPs – three more than their worst ever result of 22 last year. Labour were predicted to win a similar proportion of the vote to the Tories: 22% in the constituencies and 20% on the list.

The SNP would also stand to lose two seats, if the polling played out, returning 62 MSPs. In 2021 the party won 64, just one short of an absolute majority in the proportionally representative Scottish Parliament.

The Panelbase poll found 45% support for Nicola Sturgeon’s (above) party in the constituency vote and 38% on the list.

However, the polling suggested that Holyrood’s current pro-independence majority would remain unchanged, with the Scottish Greens 9% of the list vote converting to a further two seats, increasing their total to 10 MSPs.

The LibDems were predicted to scoop up the remaining four seats lost by the Tories, with 8% support in the constituencies and 9% on the list.

The Panelbase poll of 1133 Scottish adults aged over 16 also returned predictions for Westminster.

The research found that the Tories could lose half of their remaining MPs in Scotland – leaving them with just three – and estimated that the SNP could take 50 seats.

Meanwhile, the numbers suggested Labour would win two seats in Scotland, one more than they currently have, while the LibDems would remain unchanged on four MPs.

On the constitutional question, it found that support for the Union had a slight advantage. With Don’t Knows removed, 51% backed the UK against 49% who backed independence.

However, when caveats were added to the question, such as how people would vote with Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, or Liz Truss as prime minister, the pro-independence side won out each time, by 52%, 51%, and 52% respectively.