Scottish independence campaign needs to win economic arguments to win indyref2

While arguments for Yes win out when voters are asked to consider their feelings about the direction Scotland is moving in politically versus England or their attitudes towards Westminster, most remain unconvinced independence will make them better off, according to a study by Ipsos Scotland.

The new poll found only 46% found the argument that Scotland’s economy would be “stronger outside the UK” convincing, versus 47% who did not.

'Yes still has a job to do'

Yes activists now need to make the case Scotland “cannot afford” to stay in the Union, said Toni Giugliano, the SNP’s policy convenor.

“Yes still has a job to do,” he said. “I think that the government papers will help to do that but frankly, the cost-of-living crisis, Brexit and, to some extent, the choices made during the pandemic, all show that Westminster doesn’t have Scotland’s interests at heart.”

Arguments around the economy, including addressing concerns about mortgages and pensions must be "front and centre" of the next campaign for independence, said Giugliano.  

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He added: “We can’t afford to stay in the Union, is the bottom line… independence gives us the chance to escape a Brexit that is only going to make Scotland poorer and embrace the opportunities that being part of the world’s largest single market and the benefits that would bring.

“That’s the argument that we need to get across – that we’ve got what it takes to be an independent country and a successful one too.

“What we need to stop doing is to compare a future independent country with the UK, which we’re all guilty of doing but I don’t think it’s helpful.

“We’re not trying to replicate a smaller version of [the UK], we’re trying to create something quite different.”

'Pro-Union arguments have been demolished' 

The poll, published on Thursday, showed 57% of those surveyed found that argument that “leaving the UK…would be a major risk for Scotland’s economy and jobs” convincing – the highest rated of four statements put forward in defence of the Union to respondents.

Maggie Chapman, the Greens’ economy spokesperson, said the “promises of a strong economy” which saw the Union win out in 2014 had been “proven wrong”.

She added: “The Tories are taking a wrecking ball to our economy. With runaway inflation, soaring prices and essential items costing more every day, we are facing a social emergency that has been fuelled by the incompetence and cruelty of Downing Street.

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"We were promised a prosperous future as part of the UK. Instead, what we got is a corrupt and incompetent Tory government that is happy to cosy up to its wealthy friends and let oil and gas companies rake in record profits while millions of people are forced to choose between heating and starving.

"I am confident that when the people of Scotland have their say next year, they will recognise the vast potential and abundance of natural resources that Scotland has, as well as the economic opportunities that are currently being held back by years of cuts, austerity and terrible economic decisions from Westminster."

Chris McEleny, general secretary of the Alba Party, said the economic case for the Union is failing and that “the current cost of living crisis is just the latest example of why Scotland needs independence as an immediate priority”.

He added: “Across the land Scots are asking themselves how it can be possible that we are self-sufficient in oil and gas and we generate enough electricity through renewables to power every home but over 70% of our households are facing the prospect of fuel poverty. The case for the Union simply cannot explain why we live in an energy-rich land but our country is full of fuel-poor Scots. 

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“Most of the No campaign arguments of 2014 no longer exist. We are no longer in the EU despite Scots voting against leaving it and the impact of Brexit and the free fall of the pound are exacerbating the energy crisis. 

“Independence will allow us to chart our own path, such as ridding Scotland of the moral insanity and economic obscenity of weapons of mass destruction. It would allow us to choose to join the European Free Trade Association so that we could regain our access to the world’s biggest marketplace.

“The ability to trade freely with 500 million people across Europe and have a relationship with the rest of the UK similar to that which Northern Ireland now has with the EU would be to pen a phrase much used by unionists in 2014 ‘the best of both worlds’.”