SNP leader will face delicate balancing act to repair Yes movement

Minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol has officially saved 150 lives in one year, a reduction the original modelling expected to see after 20 years.

Meanwhile, the total number of lives saved since the scheme began in 2018, might be 750 – though researchers are reluctant to extrapolate because of changes in consumption and behaviour during the intervening lockdown years.

Worryingly though, the overall death rate from alcohol abuse has still risen by 22%, so MUP has only helped a bad situation from getting worse.

So making booze more expensive will not conquer Scotland’s addiction problems on its own, since they are so strongly connected to poverty, inequality and despair.

But having said all of that, the verdict amongst independent researchers is unequivocal.

Minimum unit pricing works and the Scottish Government was right to fight off a series of legal challenges from the drinks industry, to become the first government in the world to apply it.

Watch now, as others follow suit – maybe even Westminster.

Yet a column exploring this policy’s success is not what anyone wants to read right now.

Praising the Scottish Government and therefore Nicola Sturgeon on this – or any other issue– is an open invitation for a virtual kicking on social media by fellow supporters of independence.

Dislike for the “outgoing” First Minister, former chief executive Peter Murrell and the rest of the “old” ministerial team is now so intense on social media that nothing – not even a policy success – can get in the way of venting anger, stating and restating contempt for the old regime and predicting more serious revelations if a “non-continuity” candidate is successful on Monday.

Writing directly about the contest invites the weirdest speculation.

Just for the record I have spoken to Nicola Sturgeon only three times in the last 20 years, have received no payment for “services rendered” yet stubbornly stand by the fact that she is a brilliant communicator who has been much less successful with strategy – on independence, land reform, centralisation, involving members via party conference or even her own MSPs in important policy decisions, let alone connecting with the wider Yes movement.

Like many others, I’ve been critical in print, about the slow transformation of party conferences into a rubber-stamping corporate opportunity.

Indeed, I stopped going to speak at SNP fringe meetings five years ago after realising that being present was validating a very unhappy status quo.

SNP branch secretaries also know I’ll speak at local Yes events – but not party meetings since that endorses a party with no intention of tackling land inequality or the absence of genuine local democracy – the very subjects I’m usually asked to speak about.

I’ve nonetheless listened as SNP members the length and breadth of the country criticised HQ attempts to “fix” their selection of local candidates and watched an alternative slate win in 2021 only to end with resignations, complaints by former national treasurer Douglas Chapman MP about blocked access to the books and the departure of others to the Alba Party.

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After which a speedy return to business as usual occurred – tholed by ALL the current leadership candidates.

It’s taken a long time for the situation to come to a head, and it says something, that it took a public demand for information by a leadership candidate to get Peter Murrell to quit when no amount of democratic pressure or internal party process could achieve the same. There’s a lot to fix and there may be more revelations, and police interviews – or not.

There will doubtless be more pelters for starting this column with complimentary remarks about the fact of a modest Scottish Government success.

And that’s fairly weird.

Not writing about the contest means “ducking the issues”. Yet writing about it is like walking the plank.

That may be inevitable as a decade’s tight control is suddenly removed. And of course, there are lots of unanswered questions only the police can tackle or let drop.

Meantime, it’s not pleasant. And it’s not clear when these heightened feelings will end.

But it must be the minute the election result is announced – for the good of Yessers’ collective sanity, for the good of independence but mostly to help the “lucky” winner who must suddenly shift from winning an election to the vital business of running a government.

So, will there be a truce?

Or is the aim to encourage the disintegration of the party or a Holyrood election – whoever wins?

Or are the political consequences of venting really not anyone’s individual responsibility? What’s next? What’s the strategy?

Because if anyone cares about outcomes, neither a Kate Forbes nor an Ash Regan government will easily withstand opposition bear traps and criticism, while continuing attacks by erstwhile supporters make it impossible for either woman to bring the entire membership back together.

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The new leader – whoever that is – already faces a tall order, slipping seamlessly from candidate, critic and opponent, to insider, SNP boss and leader of the next government.

And if the Greens walk out, that will be a tricksy minority affair with backing pieced together for each individual vote.

It’s going to be an even tougher gig if “supporters” don’t ease the pressure on them and ease up.

Meanwhile, the next leader – Regan, Humza Yousaf or Forbes – will need skills beyond the ordinary for achieving quick consensus on internal party reform, healing wounds, dealing with stalled/repudiated legislation like Gender Recognition Reform, actually getting elected as first minister (though that should be straight forward) and selecting good folk to be advisers and ministers, when some may feel alienated.

And much of the SNP’s talent is stuck at Westminster because of a Murrell-motivated rule change that’s made it hard to head to Holyrood – a rule change that should quickly be reversed.

But some less obvious skills will be vital too.

Like the ability not to be tempted to overclaim on issues like closing the attainment gap – for example – since so much of it is caused by poverty, public spending and benefits decisions at Westminster.

Whilst also making tangible progress on setting up green district heating to end our reliance on gas.

The next first minister will need to get top brains involved in vexed issues like the ferries debacle whilst also coming back fighting and unrepentant about Scottish Government achievements – like the minimum unit pricing policy and our better-than-elsewhere NHS.

It’s not easy to do when the MSM is sceptical, you’re feeling knackered and “culture wars” are running amok within the party.

But the difference between Scotland before the indyref and today is considerable.

And a new SNP leader must highlight the differences without constantly seeming to grind the axe. That won’t be easy – but it will become nigh on impossible if the background angry mood music hasn’t stopped.

Will it? Let’s see – and let the pelters begin.