THE results of a Westminster General Election, a Holyrood election, and a Scottish independence referendum have been predicted by a new poll.
A survey from Redfield and Wilton Strategies, published on Wednesday, suggested that the SNP and Labour were neck-and-neck when it came to how Scots would vote in the upcoming General Election.
It found the SNP would win 34% of the vote, while Labour also won 34%. The Tories polled at 16%, the LibDems 6%, the Greens and Reform both on 4%, and Alba on 1%.
Pollster Mark McGeoghegan said that a seat projection based on these results would see the SNP return 20 MPs while Labour returned 27. The Tories would drop one MP to return six north of the Border, while the LibDems would win four seats.
Due to constituency boundary changes, Scotland will have 57 MPs following the next General Election.
At Holyrood, the SNP have a four-point lead over Labour on the constituency vote (35% to 31%). The Scots Tories polled at 18%.
On the list vote, Labour had a one-point lead over the SNP. The Tories polled at 16%, the Greens and LibDems were tied on 9%, Reform UK 5%, and Alba 3%.
And on independence, the Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll found that No had a three-point lead over Yes.
'No' leads by 3 points.
— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) March 13, 2024
Scotland Independence Referendum Voting Intention (10-11 March):
No 46% (-1)
Yes 43% (–)
Don't Know 11% (+1)
Changes +/- 3-4 Februaryhttps://t.co/fNfHGmiUpD pic.twitter.com/7TLYMlD4J8
While 46% of Scots said they backed the Union, 43% said they supported independence. A sizeable 11% said they did not know.
Elsewhere in the survey, Labour’s Anas Sarwar led Humza Yousaf on the question of who would be the better First Minister for Scotland for the first time (by one point).
However, Yousaf continues to lead over the Conservatives’ Douglas Ross (by six points).
Redfield and Wilton Strategies surveyed 1000 Scots from March 10-11.
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