LABOUR have taken the lead over the SNP in both Holyrood and Westminster voting intention – although support for independence remains split down the middle, according to a new poll.
The Savanta survey for The Scotsman found Labour had a four-point lead on Westminster voting intention, predicting Keir Starmer’s party would win 37% of the vote north of the Border to the SNP’s 33%.
And while the parties were tied on Holyrood constituency voting intention on 35% each, Labour have a six-point lead over the SNP on the regional list vote (32% vs 26%).
The poll was conducted from May 3-8, a period of transition for the SNP which saw Humza Yousaf step down as party leader and be replaced by John Swinney, who officially became First Minister on Wednesday 8.
READ MORE: Polling predicts Holyrood and Westminster results as Humza Yousaf resigns
It found that Scotland remained split on independence however, with 48% backing Yes against 52% who said they would vote to remain in the Union.
Chris Hopkins, Savanta’s political research director, said the findings showed “the major uphill task that John Swinney faces as the new First Minister” – adding that it was the “first time ever that Savanta’s research has shown a Labour lead over the SNP for Westminster voting intention”.
Hopkins went on: “While our research suggests that the SNP continues to have a solid base, they’re likely to fall quite far from the 43 seats they currently hold at the next General Election – as things stand.
“Even if Swinney can begin to turn things around, the spectre of [Nicola] Sturgeon and everything her time in power is now associated with will continue to hang over the party and hamper any recovery."
According to seat projections from Savanta, the polling results would see the SNP return 18 MPs to Westminster if a General Election were held tomorrow, while Labour would jump to 28.
The Tories polled at 17% and were predicted to return six MPs, while the LibDems were on 7% and were projected to win five seats.
At Holyrood, a seat projection based on the vote shares gave Labour 47 MSPs at Holyrood against 35 for the SNP.
The Tories polled at 18% in both constituency and list voting intention and were predicted to win 24 seats. The LibDems polled at 6% and 10% respectively and were projected to return 12 MSPs.
READ MORE: John Swinney: Scottish independence can be delivered within five years
The Scottish Greens were not separately listed under constituency voting intention but polled at 11% on the regional list vote, which Savanta projected would net them 11 MSPs.
Other parties were not polled separately and their general category was predicted to win 5% of constituency votes and 4% on the regional list.
The polling also found a plurality of Scots believe Swinney will make a good First Minister, though the country was roughly divided into three. In total, 38% said he would do a good job, 31% said a bad one, and 31% did not know.
The poll also found 37% of Scots think Swinney would do a better job as SNP leader than Kate Forbes, his Deputy First Minister, while 32% backed Forbes in the question.
Savanta polled 1080 Scottish adults aged 16+ online between May 3-8.
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