General Election: What do the polls say in Scotland?

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RISHI Sunak has called a General Election – with the country set to go to the polls on July 4.

After 13 years of Tory rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022 UK-wide.

But what about the situation in Scotland?

The latest poll made for pretty grim viewing for the SNP, with new First Minister John Swinney looking to turn the tide over the next 43 days.

Labour were projected to win 39% of the vote north of the Border in the latest survey conducted by YouGov, while the SNP were projected to win 29%.

READ MORE: Rishi Sunak confirms July General Election after intense speculation

Elsewhere, the Conservatives were on 12% (-2), the Lib Dems on 8% (no change), the Greens on 7% (+3) and Reform UK on 4% (-1).

But pollster Mark McGeoghegan said that with it being a July election, Scottish voters could “shift unpredictably as they make up their minds” – especially those who voted SNP in 2019 but remain undecided.

“You can make arguments for anything from SNP near-wipeout to narrow SNP majority,” he said.

An average of the most recent polls makes for better viewing, with just a slight lead for Labour.

Analysis by Ballot Box Scotland (below) finds that Labour are at 35.8%, with SNP a little below at 32.3%.

Average of most recent poll (Survation close to timing out) by each pollster that BBS tracks (vs 2019):

Lab ~ 35.8% (+17.2)
SNP ~ 32.3% (-12.7)
Con ~ 15% (-10.1)
LD ~ 7.8% (-1.5)
Grn* ~ 2.8% (+1.8)
RUK* ~ 2.5% (+2.0)

* Only prompted in 2 of 4 polls https://t.co/1WXuXSwIDd https://t.co/ujEbraWNBX pic.twitter.com/vow2K8unm5

— Ballot Box Scotland (@BallotBoxScot) May 22, 2024

The Tories, meanwhile, are at 15%. The Lib Dems are at 7.8%, the Greens are at 2.8% and Reform UK at 2.5%.

Full breakdown below:

• Lab: 35.8% (+17.2)
• SNP ~ 32.3% (-12.7)
• Con: 15% (-10.1)
• LD: 7.8% (-1.5)
• Grn*: 2.8% (+1.8)
• RUK*: 2.5% (+2.0)