It's Labour against an Independent in Na h-Eileanan an Iar

MORE than in any other constituency, there’s a danger in Na h-Eileanan an Iar that pundits and politicians alike have been describing a campaign that is not actually taking place.

Both Labour and the SNP have talked up a titanic struggle between themselves in the seat, and media commentary has focused on whether the SNP can hold off a Labour challenge in territory they’ve held for two decades.

But in fact, the strong indications from the ground are that the official SNP candidate Susan Thomson is well off the pace and that Labour’s main competitor is the incumbent pro-independence MP Angus Brendan MacNeil, who was elected under the SNP banner in every General Election between 2005 and 2019, but who has sat as an Independent parliamentarian over the last year. This should not be a major surprise, because Na h-Eileanan an Iar is one of the few constituencies in the UK in which the personal vote counts for as much as the party vote.

Leaving aside MacNeil’s departure from the SNP, the seat has only changed hands between parties three times since the Second World War, and none of those occasions can be explained by national politics or by national trends.

READ MORE: How we exposed Scottish Labour's 'we helped the Tories' video

In the 1970 general election, Donald Stewart used the profile he had built up as Provost of Stornoway to gain the constituency for the SNP for the first time. He subsequently turned it into what was described as a “safe SNP seat”, with his share of the vote peaking at an astounding 67% in February 1974.

But what happened after his retirement in 1987 demonstrated beyond doubt that much of that had been a personal vote rather than a vote for the SNP because his voters didn’t simply transfer their allegiance to his successor as SNP candidate in the way that would generally be expected to happen in mainland constituencies.

Instead, they started with a fresh slate and judged a new batch of candidates on their merits, allowing Labour’s Calum MacDonald to seize the seat on an enormous 19% swing.

MacNeil has had 19 years to build up a strong personal relationship with his constituents in the same way that Stewart did. So although the SNP had the absolute power to expel MacNeil last year and replace him as their official candidate, what they had no ability to do was flick a switch and stop islanders from continuing to view him as one of the two leading candidates in this election alongside Labour’s.

Angus MacNeil sat as an independent MP following his departure from the SNP

That has both positive and negative implications for the prospects of a pro-independence victory in Na h-Eileanan an Iar on Thursday. It means that, uniquely in Scotland, the leading pro-independence candidate is not tied to baggage from the SNP’s performance in government or from the sequence of events leading to the resignations of Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf. MacNeil himself has stated that he feels standing for the SNP would in the current circumstances have reduced his potential level of support rather than increased it.

But the downside of MacNeil and an official SNP candidate standing directly against each other is that it guarantees the pro-independence vote will be split to some extent because the SNP are bound to attract at least some residual support. That could be enough to tip the balance and get Labour’s candidate Torcuil Crichton elected, especially if the race between Crichton and MacNeil is close.

And because Crichton is a relatively well-known figure as the former Westminster editor of the Daily Record, he is exactly the sort of person who might be able to take full advantage of islanders’ traditional loyalty to their incumbent MP once he is in the Commons.

READ MORE: Gordon Brown: Labour will 'turn the tide' on poverty despite two-child cap

He’s 59 and is thus unlikely to stay in harness for 35 years as Donald Stewart’s Labour predecessor did, but he could well stick around and frustrate pro-independence candidates for a decade or more.

So the long-term consequences of a split Yes vote in Na h-Eileanan an Iar could be more severe than in mainland constituencies. One of MacNeil’s key objectives in the closing days of the campaign will be to unite the pro-independence base behind him as much as possible

and to persuade those planning to stay loyal to the SNP to at least consider lending him their vote to stop Labour.

Crichton requires less than a 9% swing to become the islands’ first anti-independence MP since Calum MacDonald, and at the moment, he may be the slight favourite.