JOHN Curtice has issued a “health warning” to the exit poll that predicted the SNP could be reduced to fewer seats than Nigel Farage’s Reform.
The polling expert, who helped oversee the exit poll for the BBC, Sky and ITV, said researchers could have “underestimated” John Swinney’s party in their research which forecast the SNP to take just 10 seats.
Curtice, a professor at Strathclyde University, said it was possible that the SNP may perform better than expected against a resurgent Scottish Labour – but did not address concern the exit poll overstated Tory fortunes north of the Border.
Analysis of the exit poll conducted by ITV said the party would scoop up six seats from the SNP – a prospect Scottish Tory sources have reportedly dismissed.
READ MORE: John Swinney issues statement as SNP forecast to be reduced to 10 seats
Speaking on the BBC, Curtice said: “It’s already been emphasised from the beginning of the night, inevitably we have fewer sampling points in Scotland than elsewhere.
“It does look as though the SNP have done particularly badly but remember there are lots of seats in Scotland which are marginal between Labour and the SNP and […] even if we’ve just underestimated relative to Labour by a little bit, then that SNP number will go up.”
And he addressed the bombshell prediction that Reform, led by Farage (above), could become the fourth-largest party at Westminster, three seats ahead of the SNP.
Curtice said: “Basically what we have got in the exit poll is a lot of places where there is a small that Reform will win the seat, where we’re talking about 20-30% chance and we add up these probabilities and that’s how we get to the figure 13.
READ MORE: Why exit poll is not the worst-case scenario for independence supporters
“But to be honest the figure could end up being quite a lot less than that, or indeed, rather more, depending on how the cookie crumbles.”
He added: “So those are the health warnings, behind all of this does look as though Sir Keir Starmer is going to be the prime minister tomorrow.
“He’s probably going to have a very substantial overall majority and that of course is the crucial thing we’re trying to find out.”
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here