SNP will lose Scottish election without major reform, say ex-MPs

Several figures including former Scottish Government ministers and those who lost their seats in the General Election told The Guardian the SNP faces “a doing” at the Scottish elections in 2026 unless the party gets "real with people".

However, some have stressed that even if the SNP do lose the election, independence will not be off the agenda.

“Even if the SNP get an absolute doing in 2026 I don’t think independence is off the agenda,” said one former MP.

“But for too long there’s been silence on ‘what if Westminster say no?’ The SNP has got to start getting real with people.”

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Stewart McDonald, the former MP for Glasgow South, said: “What does an SNP that has learned its lesson look and sound like? I don’t think it’s possible to overstate the scale of the challenge we are facing as a party.”

“The way things are now, we run the real risk of not winning in 2026,” said one senior MSP. “We have to change course and John needs to be decisive.”

One former MP suggested it was “incredibly difficult if not impossible” to counter Labour’s message of change which appealed to voters who wanted the Tories out of government.

Other figures described the challenges they had in dealing with voters being turned off by the police investigation into SNP finances and the more recent expenses row involving former health secretary Michael Matheson, who racked up an £11,000 data bill on a parliamentary iPad while on holiday in Morocco.

“I found myself on the doorstep trying to contextualise scandal after scandal,” said another former MP, with voters telling a number of candidates “we expected better of your lot”.

(Image: Archive)

Another MP said SNP supporters were compounded by an unfocused campaign where “the message changed every 20 minutes” and were disappointed by the loss of integrity.

Morale is reportedly “very low” on the Holyrood backbenches, while other insiders have described a party “exhausted” by government, and there are some fears moments for reflection at the conference could descend into infighting.

There are also some concerns about a “bunfight” between current MSPs and the sizeable cohort of recently jettisoned MPs over selections for Holyrood.

The SNP went from having 48 MPs to just nine as Scottish Labour wiped out the central belt.

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Senior figures have suggested that if the party is going to turn around its fortunes, there is an urgent need to focus on delivery before 2026.

Ahead of the upcoming programme for government, another senior SNP figure: “For 2026 we need to run on a platform of competence first, which then amplifies the independence message.”.

“It’s hard after 19 years to badge yourself as offering something new and different. We need to pick three or four things that we’re going to fix and do them well,” another former minister said.

“The Scottish Government has still time to turn things around,” said one parliamentarian.

“But that needs grit at a leadership level, stop imagining you can ride out every problem, accept the need to cut people loose and enforce discipline – the party needs to be up for winning rather than keeping every single member happy.”

Other senior figures have stressed the party need to get better at explaining what it can and cannot do as a devolved government.

“We’ve spent millions mitigating the worst effects of austerity but don’t explain it,” another source told the paper."