How likely is a snap Scottish Parliament election? Experts have say

MSPs voted to back free school meals for all primary school children after the SNP decided to remove delivering on the pledge from its Programme for Government, while the Parliament also voted against bringing back peak rail fares which are set to return at the end of the month.

Given the Greens have also suggested that they will find it difficult to support the SNP’s Budget – due to be announced in December – the SNP are in a situation where they may not be able to get their spending plans over the line.

But how likely is it that the Budget will fall and are we really going to get an early election in the new year? The Sunday National spoke to some experts to get a gauge on the matter.

Will the Budget pass?

WITH the Budget still a few months away from being announced, time is the SNP’s friend at the moment, given there will also be several stages of voting before the Budget Bill becomes law.

But Dr Nick McKerrell (below), a senior lecturer in law at Glasgow Caledonian University, said all the political signs are suggesting the SNP are going to have a difficult time getting enough support for their fiscal agenda.

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He explained that for the first time in more than a decade, the SNP are essentially back to the days of 2007 to 2011 when they had to negotiate budgets year by year with “no clarity” on who would support them.

“The first eight years [of devolution], you had a coalition because they knew they would get budgets through,” McKerrell said.

(Image: NQ)

“The first minority of Salmond, there was issues year-by-year on the Budget but it was almost like a permanent job to get that agreement. Then with the majority government, you didn’t have an issue, and with the minority in 2016, it was less of an issue because the Greens were likely to back the Government because of the broader context of Brexit and the second referendum.

“Then there was the Bute House Agreement in 2021. So in ways, we’re back to 2007 without any clarity of any potential allies.

“At one level, it might just be a readjustment back to that mode because we’ve not been used to it.”

However, he added: “It is a while before the Budget is presented, but the political ramifications of the Greens voting against two aspects of the Government’s position which are quite central to their Budget [would suggest] that it might be a difficulty.”

A Budget not passing at Holyrood can have serious implications. According to the Fraser of Allander Institute, law mandates that public spend would be capped at last year’s spend in that situation, so this could mean a real-terms decrease in spend for the budgets of different services like the NHS and local government.

Since 2009, there has also been another complication with the devolution of income tax rates. MSPs need to pass a rates resolution, confirming the rates and bands of Scottish income tax, before the end of March or they won’t be allowed to levy taxes in the next financial year.

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So the only real way of breaking the impasse and averting a crisis if a Budget looks like it's going to fail is to have what is known as an extraordinary election – a Holyrood election that takes place before the end of the five-year term.

However, sending voters to the ballot box in 2025 would not stop there being another election in 2026, as this date is fixed in the Scotland Act.  

Because of all these factors, Dr Neil McGarvey (below), a politics expert at Strathclyde University, feels it is unlikely the Budget would not pass, even though the SNP do not appear to have the support they need at the moment.

However, he suggested hard-nosed negotiations are likely to be required.

He told the Sunday National: “It’s not serious yet but it’s not to say it won’t get serious. I think politics would take over at some point to avert a crisis and hard-nosed negotiations would take place.

(Image: NQ)“It’s not as if it’s in every party’s interest for an election to be triggered.

“In theory, say we ended up having an election next May, that doesn’t stop there also being an election in May 2026. That’s a fixed date. So it’s not necessarily in all the parties’ interests to have two elections.”

Asked if the Government would need to manoeuvre on some of its policies, he added; “The Government itself, they’re [working in] very narrow parameters, without changing taxation rates. That’s why difficult choices are being made. They are still political choices but it could require some movement.

“The Government could quite easily get into negotiations with individual MSPs. It could be real pork barrel stuff. But I don’t think it will get that desperate, I think it’s more likely they will negotiate with the leadership of the parties.”

How might an early election occur?

IT will become clear at stage one of the Budget process whether it is going to pass or not and if it isn’t, McKerrell believes this is the point where an election would probably be called.

But a Budget destined for failure is not enough in itself to trigger an election. The Scotland Act dictates that for an extraordinary election to be called, one of two things needs to happen. Either two-thirds of MSPs have to back a call for an election, or the First Minister resigns and the Parliament does not back a replacement.

So even if the SNP decided an election should be called because they can’t get their Budget through, they would still need the support of the Parliament to do that.

Speaking about the likelihood of a snap election, McGarvey said: “I could see perhaps Labour being comfortable but I wouldn’t be so sure about the Conservatives and the LibDems.”

First Minister John Swinney has implied to the media there would be an election if the Budget looks like it's going to fail, potentially suggesting the SNP see very little opportunity for wriggle room in any negotiations.

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On the back of a successful General Election, Labour are likely to feel the most comfortable with the idea, while the Greens’ increase in vote share in many seats suggests they wouldn’t mind one either.

McKerrell said each party would be thinking carefully about whether to vote down the Budget, knowing that doing so would likely bring down the Government.

McKerrell added: “If they [the Government] lost stage one, there probably would be an election. You’d be talking about an election in around February, I think.

“To vote down a Budget, I would guess that the political parties would have a strategy about what they want to happen next. The extraordinary election wouldn’t restart the five-year cycle.

“I wonder a lot of this is a negotiating position. Do the Greens want to bring down the Government?

“Equally, some in the SNP might think ‘why don’t we just go for an election and know exactly where we stand’.”

All things considered, it is perhaps too early to say whether a trip to the ballot box after Christmas is a distinct possibility, but it’s safe to say the next couple of months in the Holyrood corridors are likely to be crucial for Swinney’s premiership.