A REFORM breakthrough in Holyrood could throw the Scottish Parliament into disarray – threatening to deprive both Unionists and pro-independence parties of a majority, according to a leading political expert.
Political scientist Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University said that “forming a pro-Unionist government will be just as difficult” as forming a Yes majority if Reform pick up Holyrood seats in 2026.
Recent polls have boosted Reform’s hopes they could replicate their Westminster breakthrough in Scotland – with one poll putting them neck and neck with the Tories.
Farage did not visit Scotland during the General Election campaign earlier this year. Nonetheless, the party picked up more votes than the Scottish Greens with a share of 7% of the popular vote.
Polls suggest they are drawing support from the Conservatives and to a lesser extent from Labour.
Professor Curtice (above) said all parties in Scotland could stand to “profit” from Labour becoming unpopular because of the UK Government’s actions – such as cutting pensioners’ Winter Fuel Allowance.
One recent poll, which measured Westminster instead of Holyrood voting intention, found that support for Labour had plummeted from 40% to 31% since May this year – while Reform were biting at the Tories’ heels with 11%.
Professor Curtice told the Sunday National: “The problem of Reform for Labour is this - it’s not necessarily how many votes or even seats they might take off them, it’s that Reform are going to be regarded by Labour as un-coalitionable.
“We’ve got a lot of talk at the moment of whether Labour could displace the SNP, maybe they can.
“But if Reform get significant representation in the Parliament, forming any kind of stable government’s going to be difficult.”
Pointing to other recent research which has predicted that Labour and the LibDems would be unable to form a majority through coalition, as in the early years of the Scottish Parliament, Professor Curtice said that even with Tory support, there may still be an inability to form a pro-Union bloc in Holyrood.
He said: “At the moment at least, it looks unlikely that Labour and the LibDems are going to have a majority the way that they did in 1999 and 2003.
“That would already mean that there would have to be some understanding with the Tories which might just be about acceptable but bear in mind how bruised the Labour Party still are because their feeling is that one of the reasons they lost so badly after 2014 is because they were seen to be in alliance with the Tories.
“Talking to Reform, that’s a no-no. If Labour plus LibDem plus Conservatives is not a majority, forming a pro-Unionist government will be just as difficult as potentially forming a pro-nationalist one.”
Former SNP MP Stewart McDonald last week suggested his party should seek to form a coalition with Scottish Labour after the next Scottish Parliament election.
Writing in The Spectator, he said it would be a “breath of fresh air” for the two centre-left parties to work together.
McDonald added: “I don’t suggest for a moment of course that this would be easy. It would take compromise and continuous effort to make it work.
“But it would overnight transform a political culture that has grown more interested in having an argument than winning an argument.”
A key challenge for Reform in the run-up to the next Holyrood poll is whether they will be able to sustain the momentum of their insurgent Westminster race earlier this year.
Professor Curtice said that changing from a corporate entity with Farage (above) as its majority shareholder to a conventional membership organisation - a move approved by party members at the Reform conference last week - gave the party a better change at longevity.
He said: “At the end of the day, why have the LibDems survived the disaster of the coalition? Because they always had a membership structure that was willing to keep the party going in tough times.”
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