Could Keir Starmer's ratings dip spell the end of First Past the Post?

Polls have repeatedly suggested in recent weeks that the Prime Minister’s favourability has been falling dramatically since he set up shop in Downing Street, but some have suggested this is not all that surprising given he had the lowest popular vote for any winning party in the democratic era at just 33.7%.

Experts have suggested the abrupt end to Starmer’s honeymoon period along with the rise of parties like Reform could spell the beginning of the end for the First Past the Post voting system which Rob Johns, a professor of politics at the University of Southampton, says is “not healthy” given how the Conservatives and Labour are becoming unprecedentedly unpopular.

He said 2024 has “resumed with a vengeance” the turn against the traditional two-party system in the UK.

He told The National: “First Past the Post is clearly less suited to the multi-party politics that the electorate is clearly moving towards.

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“I don’t think it’s a moral outrage that Labour won quite a hefty majority over the Conservatives, because actually that is what people wanted if they were forced to choose. The question is, really, should they be forced to choose by an electoral system that does that?

“Lots of people went to the polling station voting for a party other than Labour and the Conservatives knowing it was either going to be a Labour or Conservative government.

“There isn’t any real public outrage over what has happened because they know the system and the public’s tolerance for this kind of unfairness in electoral systems seems almost limitless. But I don’t think it’s healthy. Something will give eventually.

“It’s like 2024 has resumed with a vengeance the turn against the big two. The proportion of people now who say they feel strongly attached to a party is so much lower than it used to be.”

Professor John Curtice said earlier this week that the UK’s two-party system had “effectively died a death” and Dr Paul Anderson, a politics expert at Liverpool John Moores University, said he would expect more noises to emerge about reforming the electoral system.

“The era of two-party government is gone,” he told The National.

“We have these smaller parties like Reform and the Greens and a few independent candidates that have broken through and I think Labour and the Conservatives have the lowest share of the two biggest parties ever, so I think what we will see is increased chatter about reforming the electoral system, but not necessarily within Labour circles or Downing Street.”

(Image: PA)

A poll from More In Common this week showed more people now believe Keir Starmer’s Government are worse than the preceding Tory administration.

The survey of 2080 adults showed 31% preferred Rishi Sunak’s government, while 29% preferred the current one.

Amid rows over clothing donations and cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment, the Labour Government and Starmer have seen their popularity decline at a worrying rate after taking power less than three months ago.

The latest poll from Opinium, conducted between September 25 and 27 for The Observer, also found that the Prime Minister’s net approval ratings are now -30%, down almost 50 points since he took on the position.

While Starmer winning such a small share of the vote and yet being able to form a government might explain his early struggles, both Johns and Anderson said they were still surprised at how quickly the honeymoon period seems to have ended for the Prime Minister.

Asked if it was surprising how quickly the public have turned on Starmer, Johns said: “Yes it is. I think it has something to do with the fact that Starmer’s performance was good in relative terms [in opposition], he was more popular than the Conservatives.

“When people were comparing Starmer’s Labour with an actual, concrete alternative for Government, plenty of them were happy enough with Starmer. But if you compare Starmer with some ideal prime minister or some ideal party, it was always clear Labour were going to be found wanting.

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“It was always going to be more difficult when voters were thinking ‘okay, what are they doing compared to what they should be doing?’ rather than ‘what are they doing compared to what the Conservatives are doing?’.

Anderson was much more critical, insisting Labour’s popularity dip was of their own making amid unfavourable policies – such as cutting the Winter Fuel Payment – the freebies row and news around Starmer’s chief of staff Sue Gray earning more than the Prime Minister himself.

But he added it was becoming evident Starmer did not win the election because people liked his Labour Party.

Anderson added: “I think it’s surprising is how quickly the honeymoon period has ended, and I think that’s Labour’s fault.

“But we have to recognise that going into the election Keir Starmer’s popularity ratings were not sky high. He didn’t win the election because voters were embracing Labour. He won because voters were rejecting the Conservatives.

“He won because of who he was not rather than who he was. He’s no Tony Blair and I think that’s where people are drawing comparisons with the landslide. The wheels seem to be falling off the wagon quite quickly.”