The ‘greatest of all time’ debate has divided the football world for a generation of fans, as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo put forward their irrepressible cases.
Whilst both legends are still leaving their mark on the beautiful game, the battle to take their crown is seeing a raft of Next Gen G.O.A.T. contenders emerge to take their position at the pantheon of world football.
Oxford mathematician Dr Tom Crawford has revamped his algorithm to identify Kylian Mbappé as the game’s new leading light, with an index score of 86 seeing him top the G.O.A.T. Index 2.0 rankings.
The France talisman takes the lead ahead of a surprise challenger, with former Manchester City talent Julian Álvarez (84) holding off a host of talent including English megastar Jude Bellingham (82) and ex-teammate Erling Haaland (81).
The G.O.A.T. Index 2.0, commissioned by LiveScore, one of the world’s leading providers of real-time sports updates, builds on the original research that crowned Cristiano Ronaldo the all-time winner in 2021, and uses a sophisticated mathematical model from Dr Tom Crawford to evaluate the achievements and potential of global footballers under the age of 25.
Each player is ranked according to a range of performance metrics, utilising factors such as international and domestic goals and titles and individual honours and career milestones.
A key innovation for the new G.O.A.T Index 2.0 is the ‘G.O.A.T. Curve’, which is used to predict a player’s career trajectory, analysing whether it aligns more closely with the ‘Ronaldo Curve,’ characterised by an s-shaped trajectory, with fluctuations in performance due to early club changes and transfers, or the ‘Messi Curve,’ a straight line indicating consistent high performance.
By analysing these curves, alongside all other metrics, Dr Crawford can predict each player’s future potential based on their career path and achievements.
While Mbappé, Phil Foden, and Lamine Yamal follow the Messi Curve, Bellingham, Haaland and Álvarez exhibit characteristics of the Ronaldo Curve.
Click here to see Dr Tom Crawford Unveil The G.O.A.T. Index on LiveScore’s YouTube Channel
This analysis places Álvarez in second place with a G.O.A.T. Index score of 72, just behind Mbappé, who leads with 86. At 25, Les Blues’ captain is already one of football’s global superstars.
At 24, Álvarez has quietly built an equally impressive trophy haul with Argentina and Manchester City, including a World Cup, two Copa Américas, a UEFA Champions League title, and two Premier League winner’s medals. The now Atlético Madrid forward also became the first player to win a World Cup and a continental treble in the same season in 2023.
Dominic Vye, Marketing Director at LiveScore, said: "As football fans, we've all been captivated by the achievements of Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, but we now enter a new era of our favourite players closely contesting for the ultimate individual awards.
“As a leading and reliable source of football data and insight, we want to fuel fans’ passion for the sport they love, and that’s why we’re delighted to once again work with Dr Tom Crawford to answer football’s next greatest question.”
Dr Tom Crawford, Mathematician at the University of Oxford, added: “As a massive football fan, I’ve watched Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi battle it out for many years. It’s now incredibly exciting to identify who of the next generation will take their place at the very top of the game, as a new debate grips fans.
“It’s no surprise to see players like Kylian Mbappé and Jude Bellingham come out on top of my algorithm, but to also see perhaps more unexpected players is really exciting and I can’t wait to see what the future truly holds for the sport.”
To see how Dr Tom Crawford created The G.O.A.T. Index 2.0 for LiveScore, click here.
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here