COP29 on knife edge as talks continue, says Scottish observer

Dr Wilson, who is in Azerbaijan for the two-week COP29, said it is “vital” for the planet that the talks do not collapse this week.

“An agreement is crucial not just for the climate but for the hope of a peaceful world too,” said Dr Wilson of charity SCIAF.

Dr Wilson, a seasoned veteran of COP conferences, said one interesting aspect of the first week of this year’s event had been the number of people talking about global peace and security in relation to climate change.

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He said there were a couple of reasons for this.

“Firstly, it’s because climate change unabated is going to drive more conflicts over resources across the world and dramatically increase forced migration globally, causing huge disruption that the whole world will feel,” he said.

“Secondly, it’s because these talks are always a reflection of what is happening more generally in geo-politics. The world order feels like it is breaking down, and the Trump election will only embolden nations to reject global agreements and take actions purely in their own national interests.”

Controversy has already cast a shadow over the conference with reports that a senior Azerbaijani official appears to be using his role as a delegate to arrange a meeting to discuss potential fossil fuel deals.

Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, also told world leaders that natural gas was a “gift from God” and he shouldn’t be blamed for bringing it to market.

Argentina, whose president, Javier Milei, portrays himself as incoming US president Donald Trump’s strongest Latin American ally, withdrew its negotiators on Wednesday. Argentina has the world’s second-largest shale gas and fourth-largest shale oil reserves.

This COP is aimed at deciding on a huge new financial package to fund global action on climate change but agreement appears to be a distant hope so far.

In the first week of COP29, developing countries put forward their clear proposals on this, demanding that the Global North agree to a target of $1.3 trillion per year.

Dr Wilson said that after a week of negotiations, the Global North countries still hadn’t announced publicly their counter-offer which was likely to be a lot less than the sum proposed by the Global South.

“The signals are that they can’t agree amongst themselves on how high they would be willing to go,” he reported.

Environment ministers from each country are due to arrive at COP this week which Dr Wilson said would theoretically help drive the conference towards a consensus.

Ilham Aliyev, Azerbaijan president, speaks during a plenary session at COP29 (Image: Rafiq Maqbool)

However, he added: “But they are arriving in Baku with positions between countries still very far apart and murky.

“The pressure is on. COP29 sits on a knife edge.”

While the $1.3 trillion figure may sound staggering and unachievable, Dr Wilson said the reality was that the costs of inaction would be even higher.

“The World Economic Forum suggests that by 2050, the costs of climate change would range between $1.7 trillion and $3.1 trillion per year,” he said.

“Agreeing to a big target now can help save money in the long term, not to mention save the lives and livelihoods which will be destroyed if global warming is not urgently addressed.

“It is vital that these talks do not collapse next week and that we manage to get an agreement. It is crucial not just for the climate but for the hope of a peaceful world too.”