Four in every five pensioners living below or just above the poverty line will lose the winter fuel payment under planned benefit cuts, according to a charity.

Age UK said its analysis suggested that 10.7 million UK pensioners will lose the benefit, of whom almost one in four (23%) live in poverty – with a household income of less than 60% of the median – or just above the poverty line.

The charity found that 80% – or 800,0000 – of UK pensioners aged 80 and over living in poverty or just above the poverty line will no longer receive the payment, as well as 78% – or 1.1 million – of pensioners with a disability living in the same circumstances.

The study also suggests that 76% – equivalent to one million – of the UK pensioners who live alone and live in poverty or just above the poverty line will no longer receive their payment.

Age UK said it has published its own Equality Impact Assessment of the Government’s cut to eligibility for the winter fuel payment, as it called on the Government to take action in the Budget “to avert a potential disaster for many pensioners this winter”.

According to the Government’s own equality analysis, an estimated 780,000 pensioners still eligible to receive the winter fuel payment will lose it under planned cuts.

In a document last month, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) also said that more than two thirds – around 71% – of those with a disability and 83% of those aged 80 or over would miss out.

Downing Street has said that a full impact assessment of the change, coming into effect this year, has not been carried out.

The figures, published in response to a freedom of information request, are based on “equality analyses” which “are not impact assessments and not routinely published alongside secondary legislation”, the DWP said.

Age UK said that with the Government “either not carrying out an Equality Impact Assessment or choosing not to publish it, Age UK has done the work instead”, using the most up-to-date official statistics in the public domain.

The charity’s research into the change looks at its impact by age, sex, living circumstances, disability and geographical location.

It suggests that there is no region or country in the UK in which fewer than 74% of pensioners living in poverty or just above the poverty line will lose the payment.

Age UK urged the Government to keep the payment universal this year, pending the Spending Review in the spring.

However, it said the Government must at the “very least” urgently bring in measures to expand the numbers of those who will still receive it by automatically giving it to those receiving Housing Benefit, Council Tax Support, Personal Independence Allowance, Attendance Allowance and Carers Allowance.

Age UK charity director Caroline Abrahams said: “Because the Government either did not carry out an Equality Impact Assessment or has chosen not to publish it, we thought it important to do the work ourselves.

“Some people have asserted that the Government’s cut to eligibility for winter fuel payment means there is no cause for concern because poor pensioners will still be protected, but Age UK’s Equality Impact Assessment drives a coach and horses through that claim.

“Unfortunately, the research supports our worst fears – that unless ministers change tack, and quickly, millions of older people on low and modest incomes could be facing potential disaster as the weather chills.”

A Government spokesman said: “We are committed to supporting pensioners – with millions set to see their state pension rise by up to £1,700 this parliament through our commitment to the Triple Lock.

“Over a million pensioners will still receive the Winter Fuel Payment, and our drive to boost Pension Credit take up has already seen a 152% increase in claims. Many others will also benefit from the £150 Warm Home Discount to help with energy bills over winter while our extension of the Household Support Fund will help with the cost of food, heating and bills.”

Age UK is urging any older person living on a low income or struggling with their bills to contact its free advice line on 0800 678 1602 to check they are receiving all the financial support available.

Alternatively, people can visit www.ageuk.org.uk/money or contact their local Age UK for information and advice.