Could fate of two cities be part of Ukraine’s endgame?

There was good reason for our driver’s haste, given the ever-present threat of Russian shellfire and drone strikes, the evidence of which lay either side of the road in the skeletal remains of buildings and burned-out carapaces of Ukrainian tanks and armoured vehicles. 

Pervomaiske marked the frontline, ­beyond that at the end of the road along which we travelled lay the city of Donetsk which was controlled by Russian forces.

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At the other end of the road along which we had just come, barely 28 miles away, sat the city of Pokrovsk which ­remained under Ukrainian control.

Fast forward a year however and the battlefield landscape in the region has changed dramatically in Russia’s favour with Moscow’s forces now reported to be a mere six miles from the outskirts of Pokrovsk. 

“They’re now within artillery range of the city,” Michael Kofman, a ­senior ­fellow in the Russia and Eurasia ­programme at the Carnegie Endowment for ­International Peace, confirmed last week speaking to the military podcast, War On The Rocks.

Over the past few days, a ­mandatory evacuation of Pokrovsk’s 59,000 ­population has been ordered as has a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops south east of the ­embattled city to avoid ­being “tactically encircled” by the Russian ­advancing troops.

Meanwhile, some 300 miles to the north west of Pokrovsk – actually inside Russia itself – Ukrainian troops are ­continuing an advance of their own not far from the city of Kursk, after an incursion ­earlier this month that marked the first time since the Second World War that foreign troops have invaded Russia.

These two cities, Pokrovsk in Ukraine and Kursk in Russia, have now become the two new epicentres of this war. And should Russia take Pokrovsk and Ukraine dig in and hold the ground it has taken in the Kursk region, both places could well become bargaining chips in any ­territorial trade-off that might form part of a peace deal to end the war that started back in 2022.

Viewed from Ukraine’s perspective, its audacious military incursion into Russian territory in Kursk catching its enemy off guard, stands in marked contrast to the slow but inexorable loss of ground its forces have experienced in the Donbas around places like Pokrovsk.

If politically, the purpose of Ukraine’s Kursk operation is to build leverage ahead of possible negotiations, then for the ­moment that will be of little ­consolation to the thousands of Ukrainians having to up sticks in the face of the Russian ­advance.  As of last week, following an August 19 directive from the authorities to leave the city, Ukrainian police data shows that more than 45,000 people remained in Pokrovsk, including more than 3000 children.

But Serhii Dobriak, the head of ­Pokrovsk’s military administration, was cited by local media last week as saying that the evacuation pace was not fast enough, with only 500 to 600 people departing daily, though the authorities could bring out at least 1000 a day.

Last Thursday, Ukraine’s national rail network said at least 371 people ­evacuated by train, with the network ­having to add nine carriages to accommodate the large crowds.

But, while being home to tens of ­thousands of Ukrainians, Pokrovsk also serves as a key hub for the ­Ukrainian forces thanks to its easy access to ­Kostiantynivka, another military centre.

The danger is if Pokrovsk falls then Russian troops will break through into open country behind the Ukrainian lines, threaten other strategically ­important towns like Kramatorsk and open up ­potential advances towards the big cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.

For Moscow then the capture of ­Pokrovsk would be viewed as a strategic success, and while Ukraine’s great hope is that its surprise Kursk offensive would relieve the pressure, on its eastern front, Russia’s advance has been relentless. 

According to military analysts and maps of the battlefield produced by the Finland-based Black Bird Group, which tracks developments in the conflict, it would appear that Russian troops have approached the final line of ­Ukrainian anti-tank ditches and trenches near the town.  In some cases, say the analysts, they have already breached several defensive layers during their advance, but these were less densely fortified.

As for Ukraine’s hope that its Kursk offensive would relieve the pressure on its eastern frontlines, then according to analysts, though Russia has moved troops from other sections of the eastern front line, it has in fact reinforced around ­Pokrovsk.

“Amid the Kursk offensive, Russia has stopped advancing along most of Ukraine’s front line – with one ­notable ­exception: Pokrovsk,” said Kevin ­Rothrock, the ­managing editor at the ­Russian and ­English-language ­independent news website Meduza in a social media post.

“In fact, by concentrating efforts here, Russian troops have recently captured more land per week than at any point since May,” Rothrock added. 

A shift in Russian tactics too has helped enable their advance around Pokrovsk Ukrainian military sources confirm.  Speaking to the Associated Press (AP) they told of how the Russians are deploying recurrent waves of smaller infantry units of two to four men. This has made it much more difficult for Ukrainian drone operators to target them, according to one drone operator with the 25th Brigade who uses the call sign Groot.

“This is one of the main reasons for Russia’s success in Pokrovsk,” he said. “It’s harder to detect them,” especially under the cover of leafy trees.

“As soon as the infantry get under the tree lines, it’s really hard to get them out of there with drones, and that’s why we depend a lot on our infantry,” Groot told AP.  As well as these small infantry ­assaults, others point to Russia’s use of glide bombs and new types of electronic ­warfare as having given them the edge around ­Pokrovsk.

That said, Russia’s gains across the ­eastern front generally have still cost them dearly, with an estimated 70,000 troops lost in two months, according to the UK Ministry of Defence, which ­posted the projection losses last month on social media.

For their part, some Ukrainian military point to problems within their own ranks as having helped the Russian gains, ­especially around Pokrovsk. Some Ukrainian commanders say there aren’t enough shells, with the enemy firing up to ten times as many. One account ­reported in

The Economist points to ­exhaustion and manpower being a ­significant factor for the Ukrainians.  “People aren’t made of steel,” ­Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko, told the magazine, ­adding that Ukrainian troops are ­outnumbered 4:1, and aren’t getting any rest, with some staying on the front lines for 30 or 40 days at a time living in trenches.

Other reports by the news agency AP cite other reasons for the problems, ­notably undertrained troops being brought in to bolster numbers.

Speaking to AP on condition of ­anonymity or using only their call signs in order to speak freely about ­sensitive ­military matters, commanders say the ­recruits have contributed to a string of ­territorial losses that enabled ­Russia’s army to advance, including near ­Pokrovsk.

“Some people don’t want to shoot. They see the enemy in the firing position in trenches but don’t open fire … That is why our men are dying,” said a ­frustrated ­battalion commander in Ukraine’s 47th Brigade. “When they don’t use the ­weapon, they are ineffective.”

Some told AP of having to plan ­operations with infantry who are unable to shoot targets and uninformed about basic topography, while some recruits simply lacked faith in the battle plans of their superiors and walked away from prepared positions.

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But other military observers say the problems are not the recruits and their motivation but tactical shortcomings.

Viktor Kevliuk, a military expert with the Ukraine-based Centre for Defence Strategies think tank, told AP the training offered to recruits is adequate. He said brigade commanders “are looking for an explanation for tactical failures”.

And in intense fights such as the one in Pokrovsk, “it is the timely tactical ­decisions of commanders that make the difference”, Kevliuk said.

But if Ukrainian troops have their work cut out in the eastern frontlines, more than two weeks into their surprise offensive in Kursk in western Russia, they have unnerved Russian forces even if, as might be expected, their advance has slowed.  Addressing the nation ahead of ­Independence Day celebrations ­yesterday, Ukraine’s president Volodymyr ­Zelenskyy described the offensive into Russia’s Kursk region as “justice” and a “boomerang for evil”.

He also referred to the Russian border as that “between Ukraine and oppression, between life and death … an ­independent European state and the number one ­terrorist organisation in the world”.

The assault on Kursk has served to put the Ukrainian war back into the ­headlines at a time when Ukraine fatigue was setting in again in the West. It has also brought the war to Russian territory, turning the tables more than two years ­after Russia invaded Ukraine.  

More than 130,000 members of the civilian population in Kursk Oblast have already been evacuated and just this past week reports surfaced that Russian authorities in the city of Kursk had begun installing concrete shelters “in crowded places” as Ukraine’s incursion continues.

In a post on social media, Kursk ­acting governor, Alexei Smirnov, said the ­locations of 10 had already been decided, with plans to install 60 in total.

“On my instructions, the Kursk city ­administration identified key points for placing concrete modular shelters in crowded places,” he said.

“Also, the operational headquarters is currently considering installing reinforced concrete structures in other settlements in our region,” Smirnov added.

Earlier this month, when Smirnov tried to explain to Russia’s president Vladimir Putin (below) how much territory Ukrainian troops had seized, a visibly irritated Putin cut him off.

“Listen, Alexey Borisovich, the ­military will report to us on the specifics of the frontline width and depth,” he said.

“You tell us about the ­socio-economic ­situation and report on assistance ­provided to ­people.”

Putin has remained determined that Ukraine’s Kursk incursion does not ­deliver another puncture to his aura of invincibility and to that end, the Russian leader has sought to give the impression that everything is business as usual. The Kremlin in turn has acted to bolster its forces in Kursk.

But as Russia seeks to reinforce the city and Kyiv’s forces now make marginal ­advances, some Ukrainians and others are questioning why Ukraine is devoting so many resources to taking Russian land rather than defending its own in places like Pokrovsk.

Among the possibilities put forward is to provide Zelenskyy with a ­territorial card to trade for regions annexed and occupied by Russia at a mooted second peace summit the Ukrainian leader has called for in November.  The only problem with that is Russia’s foreign minister Sergey Lavrov took that card off the table on August 20, saying any talks were now impossible ­following Ukraine’s incursion, and without the ­possibility of talks the next logical step is further escalation.

For its part, Kyiv has given no ­indication as to how long the incursion might last or what Ukraine would seek from the ­Kremlin to withdraw its forces from Kursk.

Should Pokrovsk fall because of a lack of men and resources, where is the logic in tying them up on Russian soil in Kursk, some frustrated Ukrainians ­continue to ask.

(Image: PA)

Zelenskyy (above) and his government know that control over Russia’s vast ­territories has been central to Putin’s rule.

It’s worth ­remembering that the Russian leader came to power vowing to crush a military ­insurgency that had established ­Chechnya as a breakaway state in ­southern Russia.  Knowing this, perhaps the prevailing thinking in Kyiv is that here lies the best chance of leveraging something out of Moscow should negotiations over peace ever get under way.

In the meantime, of course, Ukraine would need to hold on to its gains inside Russia around Kursk.

While Zelenskyy’s endgame remains uncertain, what is increasingly clear is the possibility of losing Pokrovsk to ­Russian control even if that could be some time off yet. Whatever the outcome, those events currently unfolding in both Kursk and Pokrovsk are undoubtedly ­really ­significant moments in this war.