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LABOUR’S popularity continues to drop with voters in Scotland. A new opinion poll by Survation on behalf of the pro-independence think tank Progress Scotland shows Labour dropping 4% in the Holyrood constituency vote and one point on the regional list vote since September.

The polling put the SNP on 31% in the constituency vote, the same as two months ago, while Labour has fallen four points to 27%. The Scottish Tories, Reform UK and the LibDems all increased by one point to 14%, 10% and 9% respectively while the Scottish Greens are still on 6% – although a 1% increase or drop is well within the margin of error and is not in itself statistically significant.

If replicated at a Scottish Parliament election the results of the poll would see the SNP remain the largest party – although even in combination with the Greens there would be no pro-independence majority. However Labour, the Lib Dems, and the Tories combined would also fall short of a majority. Reform would hold the remaining seats.

However as the recent US elections demonstrated, we cannot place too much credence in opinion polling or political forecasting. Most polls there predicted a close race, with Kamala Harris winning the popular vote and taking most of the critical swing states. In the event, Donald Trump won the popular vote and took all of the swing states. The caveats about the uncertainty of polls are even more pertinent in the case of an election which is not due to be held until May 2026, or, in the case of a Scottish independence referendum, is entirely hypothetical. Most voters need an imminent appointment with the ballot box to concentrate their minds and make a decision.

That said, it does seem certain that the Scottish electorate's brief rekindling of its romance with the Labour party is over. Voters are heartily scunnered by the axing of the Winter Fuel Payment, for which Labour is squarely, and correctly, blamed. Keir Starmer's brand of centrist cosying up to corporate interests while doubling down on some of the most vile Tory policies such as Brexit, protecting the interests of the wealthy, and hostility to immigration, does not represent the change that was promised. Labour's headline grabbing promises on fuel bills and a publicly owned energy company have quickly been revealed as a sham.

There is also not much comfort in this poll for Alba, which is not forecast to win any seats. Without its founder and leader, the party's future remains uncertain. Should it fail to win any seats in 2026, and fail to retain the seat of Ash Regan, who was originally elected as an SNP MSP, it will be hard to escape the conclusion that Alba is a failed political experiment.

Scottish voters, particularly young pro-independence voters, do not seem too interested in a pro-independence political party whose most salient distinguishing features are opposition to trans rights and unremitting hostility to the previous leadership of the SNP.

Yet there is also a warning in this poll for the SNP. The party cannot rely solely on growing public dissatisfaction with Labour in order to win the next Holyrood election. The SNP must articulate a clear and compelling pro-independence message which is capable of enthusing and engaging with the electorate in order to ensure that those sympathetic to independence turn out and vote SNP. Part of that must include some solution to the current constitutional log jam.

READ MORE: Experts weigh in on what Reform UK's rise will mean for Scottish elections

But the most alarming finding of this poll, as with other recent polls, is that hard right post-truth populist nationalism in the shape of Reform UK looks set to make a breakthrough in the next Scottish election and win seats in the Scottish Parliament.

Reform UK is a hard-right English nationalist party which is hostile to the devolution settlement and which denies the science of climate change. Its presence in the Scottish Parliament would be a deeply unwelcome and disruptive development, meaning that their message of hostility to Scottish self-government and efforts to tackle the climate emergency would receive even more publicity from the Scottish media.

Donald Trump plans to visit Scotland

Elsewhere, Donald Trump's son Eric has confirmed that his father plans to visit Scotland next year for the opening of a new golf course in Aberdeenshire.

Reacting to news of the visit, Scottish Greens co-leader Patrick Harvie said: “I am certain that Donald Trump’s visit will be met with protests and anger.

“Scotland must be loud and clear that we do not agree with his toxic values or his harmful business ventures.

“He is a dangerous, fraudulent, misogynistic, climate-change denier who claims to love our country while destroying our natural landscapes with garish golf courses and resorts for the wealthy."

Of course Trump doesn't love Scotland, that would imply he's capable of caring about something or someone other than himself. The millions of Americans who voted for him are shortly due for an even bigger disappointment than those in the UK who voted for Starmer and the Labour party in the hope of change and lower energy bills.

Here's hoping that when he visits Scotland the people of this country make the late Janey Godley proud and show the wannabe dictator what we really think of him.

Same old Labour

And finally, the Labour government has confirmed that it has no plans to fill the post of “envoy to the nations and regions” after Starmer's former chief of staff Sue Gray rejected the position. Remember, Downing Street described it as vital to resetting relationships between Westminster and the devolved governments when it was first announced.

Now it seems it wasn't so vital after all. It really was about getting Starmer out of a spot of political difficulty, very like Anas Sarwar's unconvincing U-turn on the Winter Fuel Payment.

Now, as always with Labour, it's about what is good for the party, not what is good for the public.