SCOTTISH Labour look set to be reduced to a rump in the next Scottish Parliament after a new poll suggested the party might only win 25 seats.
The TNS poll released yesterday suggests the SNP are set to increase their majority at May’s election, with analysis suggesting the party could gain 78 seats to Labour’s 25. The Tories would be on 15, with the Greens on nine and the Liberal Democrats on two.
The poll of 1,035 over-16s put the SNP at 58 per cent in the constituency vote, unchanged from last month. Labour were down by three points to 21 per cent. Both the Tories and LibDems remained unchanged at 12 per cent and four per cent respectively.
On the the constituency vote, Labour had dropped five points to 20 per cent while the SNP gained two to take them to 54 per cent.
The Tories were up one per cent to 12 and the Greens were up four to nine. The Liberal Democrats lost a point to take them to four per cent.
TNS polled Scots between November 16 and December 14, during the time of the furore over the Forth Road Bridge.
Opposition attacks on the SNP over the closure and management of the bridge have seemingly made little impact.
Tom Costley, head of TNS Scotland, said the opposition were having little effect on the SNP’s popularity, and the “agenda return” to domestic issues rather than independence was positive for the Scottish Government.
Costley said: “The past month has seen the political agenda return to devolved issues such as healthcare and transport, with opposition politicians attacking the SNP government’s record on hospital provision and on maintenance of the Forth Bridge. The criticism appears to have had little or no effect on support for the SNP.
“One interesting feature of the poll is that the number of those who say they are certain to vote in 2016 has been declining, and now stands at 58 per cent, down from 64 per cent as recently as the TNS poll in September. The turnout in Scotland in the May 7 General Election was 71%.
“It may be that, faced with the SNP’s huge lead in the polls, a number of voters feel that their vote would not influence the result. However, it seems unlikely that turnout in May will be as low as the 50 per cent recorded in the 2011 Holyrood elections.”
Pollsters asked those taking part about the issues that would affect their vote. Health was at the top of the list with 51 per cent, and the economy and education were joint second.
TNS asked also for views on replacing Trident, with 38 per cent opposing renewal, 29 per cent supporting, and a massive 26 per cent undecided. Support for the new weapons was 47 per cent in the over-55s, three times as strong as support among those aged 16 and 34.
Although next May’s election is being fought on domestic issues, the current seat predictions would give pro-independence parties 67 per cent of the seats in Holyrood.
The SNP’s Derek Mackay welcomed the poll, saying the party would “take nothing for granted.”
Mackay said: “In our eight years in office, the SNP have been focused on delivering on the issues that matter to the people of Scotland. We have frozen the council tax, protected free university tuition, scrapped prescription charges, protected free personal care, maintained the concessionary travel scheme, increased Scotland’s health budget, put over 1,000 more police on our streets, and protected those hardest hit by unfair Tory cuts.”
Patrick Harvie from the Scottish Greens also welcomed the news that his party could win nine MSPs.
“We’re looking forward to 2016 and our biggest and best election campaign to date, and we’re determined to convert polling numbers into MSPs to represent all of Scotland’s communities,” he said.
“We have our best-ever field of candidates in place and our surging membership means we’re visible and active on the ground.”
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