BREXIT is having a major impact on public opinion in Scotland, with growing numbers of people considering how they would vote in another independence referendum. Voters who are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence is the main group that is being researched by Progress Scotland, the organisation I established to properly understand this key group of swing voters.
Earlier this year we published our first large-scale opinion poll with a sample size of more than 2000 respondents, conducted by Survation. It confirmed that Brexit is having a huge impact on voters, especially on the fifth of voters who say they are open-minded or undecided on Scottish independence.
Today we are beginning to publish details of our second large-scale opinion poll, also with a sample size of more than 2000 respondents and conducted by Survation. Given the interest in a second independence referendum, we were keen to establish the views of people about the way in which such a referendum should ask the key question.
As The National reports in today’s edition, the poll results indicate unambiguous and overwhelming public support for the same question to be used in indyref2 as in 2014: “Should Scotland become an independent country?”
READ MORE: Scottish voters overwhelmingly back Yes/No question for indyref2
A huge majority of the 2032 respondents agreed that the 2014 question was “clear and easy to understand”. That proposition was supported by 88%, while “the question was fair” had support of 82%. Meanwhile, 77% of respondents said they would be satisfied if that question was used again in another referendum.
When asked “if there is another independence referendum, which of the following comes closest to your view about the question which should be asked?”, seven in 10 respondents agreed that the question asked should be the same as the question asked in the 2014 referendum. Only 17% agreed that “the question asked in the 2014 referendum should be changed”, while only 13% said that they “didn’t know”.
It is particularly noteworthy that there was a clear majority for using the same question in indyref2 as was used in 2014, regardless of which way respondents cast their votes in the 2014 vote, the 2016 EU referendum or 2017 General Election.
READ MORE: Angus Robertson: It’s clear Scots believe we will be independent
There is also a cross-party majority amongst the supporters of both pro- and anti-independence parties for the retention of the same referendum question. Sixty-nine per cent of LibDem voters in 2017, 73% of Conservative voters from that time, as well as 72% of Labour voters and 80% of SNP voters, agreed that the question should remain the same.
As with the Progress Scotland poll published earlier this year, there is a broad range of themes and questions covered and details will be released in the next few days. There is a particular focus on how Brexit is impacting on the views of swing voters on the independence question. Questions like: if the UK Government does not secure a deal with EU before the deadline of October 31, should the UK leave without a deal? Or: if the UK leaves the EU without a deal, would I be more likely to vote for independence in a future referendum? Or whether Brexit makes Scottish independence more likely? Or whether Brexit has changed my view on Scottish independence?
Crucially, whether an independent Scotland should be a full member of the European Union?
These questions and many more are the subject of this Progress Scotland poll by Survation. They form part of the rolling research schedule we are conducting, including opinion polling, focus groups and the collection of feedback from voters who have been changing their minds on Scottish independence.
READ MORE: Angus Robertson: How Progress Scotland is strengthening case for Yes
None of this would be possible without the help of the subscribers who make a monthly contribution towards Progress Scotland, allowing us to continue our research as we get closer towards the next independence referendum. We are very fortunate to be getting excellent independent polling advice from Mark Diffley, who has a long track record in the industry. We are developing ideas to broaden our research to better understand the specific groups of voters who have particular needs, interests, concerns and expectations. We have all met friends, family members and work mates who are rethinking their attitudes towards Scottish independence. By trying to best understand these changes, we plan to be optimally prepared whenever the referendum takes place.
If you would like more information about Progress Scotland, or would like to support our research and become a subscriber, please visit the website: www.progressscotland.org.
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