Massive surge for Yes as new poll puts independence vote at 52%

The survey, carried out by Panelbase between January 28 and 31, puts support for a Yes vote on a stunning 52%.

That’s five points up on the last Panelbase poll, published in December last year.

Our poll comes just hours after Survation also found increasing support for independence, with a Yes vote at 50%.

Last week a YouGov poll had Yes in the lead for the first time since 2015, by 51% to 49%.

Britain’s leading polling expert, Sir John Curtice told The National that unionists “were clearly on the back foot in the constitutional debate north of the border”.

There was also a hike in support for the SNP ahead of the next Holyrood election, with Nicola Sturgeon’s party on 50% at the constituency vote, and 47% in the regional list. The last Panelbase poll had them at 43% and 38%.

Support for the Tories, Lib Dems, and Greens remained relatively stable, but Labour has continued to haemorrhage votes, polling at 14% in both the constituency and regional list, down from 19% and 18%.

Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said that would give the SNP 67 seats, up four on their current situation. The Tories would gain one to take 32, Labour would lose seven MSPs, putting them on 17, while the Greens and Lib Dems would both add one to take their numbers to 7 and 6 respectively.

That would give the SNP an overall majority of five, and would mean that 74 of the 129 MSPs in the next Scottish Parliament would be pro-independence.

READ MORE: FACT CHECK: Does the SNP have a cast-iron mandate to hold indyref2?

Scot Goes Pop’s James Kelly described this as a “truly commanding pro-independence majority at Holyrood, well in excess of what we have at present. Most astonishingly of all, there would be a clear majority for pro-independence parties in the popular vote on both ballots – something that wasn’t even achieved in the 2011 landslide that paved the way for the first indyref”.

In his analysis, Curtice told The National: “On average three polls taken undertaken in the last fortnight put Yes ahead by 51% to 49%. This is the first time that Yes have been ahead in polls of indyref2 vote intention since immediately after the EU referendum.

“Polls undertaken last year consistently suggested that support for independence had increased from 45% to 48-49%, with all of the increase coming from those who voted Remain.

“Now that Brexit has happened it looks as though a few more Remain voters have switched sides – adding to the evidence that the pursuit of Brexit is serving to undermine the foundations of support for Union.

“Meanwhile, the latest polls suggest that this increase in support for independence is now also boosting the SNP’s prospects for next year’s Scottish Parliament election, such that the party might be able to repeat its 2011 success in winning an overall majority.

“At present, at least, unionists are clearly on the back foot in the constitutional debate north of the border.”

The SNP’s depute leader Keith Brown welcomed the “stunning poll”.

He said “momentum for a fresh referendum” was now “unstoppable”.

Brown added: “Scotland has been dragged out of the EU against our will by a Tory government with no mandate here. People in Scotland must have a choice over our future so we can stay at the heart of Europe as an equal and independent country.

“The Tories are running scared of democracy but their opposition to a referendum is completely unsustainable. The more Boris Johnson seeks to deny people in Scotland the right to determine our future - the more support for independence will continue to grow.”

READ MORE: SNP aiming to build indyref2 consensus as Unison backs poll

Scottish Greens Co-Leader Patrick Harvie, who last week re-launched his party’s Yes campaign said: “It’s clear that in the face of a Boris Johnson government determined to impose the hardest possible Brexit, more and more people are concluding that Scotland’s future must be as an independent European country.

“This poll shows that voters recognise the important role Scottish Greens MSPs have played in holding government to account and pushing Ministers beyond their comfort zone to empower local communities and protect services across the country.”

Last week Nicola Sturgeon insisted she wanted to hold a second referendum on independence in 2020, though she also conceded that it might not happen until after next year’s Holyrood election.

Johnson has categorically ruled it out, telling the First Minister that he could not “agree to any request for a transfer of power that would lead to further independence referendums”

Sturgeon accused him of running scared. “If they had any confidence in the argument for the Westminster union, they would have no problem with the people of Scotland having the right to choose.”