IN writing about how new pro-independence parties might affect next year’s Scottish Parliamentary elections, Gerry Hassan argued that competition among independence-supporting parties could affect both the overall support for independence, and looked at the broader social movement proposing independence (Would a new indy party help or hinder the task of changing minds?, July 19).
Current polling suggests that the SNP has a good prospect of being able to form a government after the next election, and could easily repeat the result of winning a majority with a little fewer than half of the votes cast.
READ MORE: Gerry Hassan: Are new indy parties helping or hindering?
In 2016, the SNP managed to get 46% of the constituency vote, but only 42% of the regional vote. It seems inevitable that with the Greens and several other independence-supporting parties primarily contesting the regional poll, the SNP share of the total vote will be higher in the constituency than the regional vote.
Growth in the gap between its vote share in constituencies and in the regions from 1.5% in 2011 to nearly 5% in 2016 helps to explain why the SNP lost its majority. Yet this is not the whole story.
Even as its share of the regional vote fell, the SNP added 77,000 votes to its 2011 total; but the number cast for the Conservatives – who chose to emphasise their Unionist credentials – increased by nearly 280,000. The dominance of the SNP means that its nearest competitor has ended up defining itself largely by its opposition to independence.
Prof Hassan is unduly pessimistic about the possible interplay among independence-supporting parties. The threat of new parties emerging may be exactly what the SNP needs to clarify its offer to voters and to encourage occasional voters to turn out – and secure a clear majority on its own.
Robbie Mochrie
Clydebank
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