IN this job, there are some sentences you never imagine you will ever have to write. “This was a stunning victory for the Liberal Democrats” is one of them. But write it I must, because it was.
Last week, the party stormed to victory in the Chesham and Amersham by-election, ending nearly 50 years of Tory dominance in the area in the process. Sarah Green fought a solidly local campaign, focusing on issues – such as the HS2 rail project – that resonate with local people.
As you would expect, the LibDems celebrated their victory with a zany photo-op. Their leader, Ed Davey, whacked at a blue plastic wall with a small orange mallet, much to the delight of the press.
The message to the Tories was clear: we’re coming for your seats.
That’s not a wave of LibDem mania sweeping England. In this by-election, the wind was in the party’s favour. The party dedicated considerable resources and time to it and ran a smart, focused campaign. It chose a good candidate and Labour voters were willing to lend their support and vote tactically.
It would be a difficult model to replicate in a General Election but the plucky LibDems seem determined to give it a go. And why not? When Ed Davey speaks about “toppling the blue wall” in the south of England, he does so knowing in 2019, the LibDems came second to the Tories in 80 seats.
The result of last Thursday’s vote was a huge blow to Boris Johnson. The Tories realised too late that they were in trouble and by the time they did and sent in the big beasts to do some last-minute campaigning it wasn’t enough to hold the seat.
There’s a lesson here for Keir Starmer. The Labour Party and their electoral chances are suffering from a lack of energy.
Shortly before Prime Minister’s Questions last week, Dominic Cummings (below) published WhatsApp messages he said were from Johnson describing Health Secretary Matt Hancock as “totally fucking hopeless”.
The timing of their release was not a co-incidence. Cummings made sure he gave the opposition enough time to see the messages (and work them into their questions to the Prime Minister) while ensuring that the Johnson didn’t have enough time to give his response to them the focus group treatment.
In the end, it was for nought because Keir Starmer opted not to mention them at all.
In his determination to look prime ministerial and “go high” when Boris Johnson goes low, Mr Starmer is playing into Johnson’s hands.
There’s no scrappiness to Keir Starmer’s leadership. Opposition leaders need to have bite as well as bark otherwise they struggle to get the public’s attention.
Wearing a well-fitted suit and being able to construct a sensible argument is not enough. Maybe it would be with another prime minister, but it certainly isn’t on this one.
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Look at Labour’s Andy Burnham, who in recent days has won numerous column inches and prime time TV coverage for his criticism of Nicola Sturgeon. Leave aside what you think of his argument – that it is unfair for Manchester to be subject to a Scottish travel ban when there are areas of Scotland with similar levels of infection – and see what a wee bit of righteous indignation and plain-talking can do.
If Starmer had made the same argument you get the sense it would have involved a PowerPoint presentation and a thick binder full of supporting documents.
It’s time for the Labour leader to get real. He needs to appeal to the English electorate he’s got, not the one he would like to have. His managerial style of leadership may have steadied the ship but it’s not actually taking the party any further forward.
Recent polling has suggested Labour are on course to lose next month’s by-election in Batley and Spen, the late Jo Cox’s former seat.
There have been murmurings that if that happens, disgruntled frontbenchers may mount a leadership challenge.
If that challenge comes from Lisa Nandy (above) or Angela Rayner, Starmer loyalists would no doubt criticise them for attempting to destabilise the party and return it to the infighting mess that it was under Jeremy Corbyn.
But that’s politics. If Starmer had thus far proved himself able and eager to topple Boris Johnson at the next election, or lay significant blows on him in the meantime, there would be no talk of the prospect of his leadership coming to a quick end.
In contemplating his next move, he might also want to consider Scottish voters who – like the English – he has failed to both understand and woo. Because right now it looks like his message to us is reject independence and stick with the Conservative Government that he can’t beat, and we didn’t vote for.
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