David Pratt: We must be wary of an over-reliance on the US as an ally

After all, it was only last year under the Trump administration that America carried out a drone-strike assassination of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the senior commander of al-Hashd al-Shaabi, along with top Iranian general Qassem Soleimani.

It was something of an unsettling moment then that day in October, when barely minutes into my interview with Haji Abu Turab Al Hilali, two US military helicopters passed overhead.

“Perhaps the Americans are coming for us,” Al Hilali joked wryly, jerking his head momentarily skywards, but clearly not in the least perturbed by the sudden appearance of the aircraft.

There was no mistaking Al Hilali’s utterly disparaging response. One that struck me afterwards as pretty much summing up the prevailing dismissive attitude among many of Washington’s adversaries around the globe right now.

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Remember that bold, assertive “America is back” pronouncement made by newly elected president Joe Biden not so long ago? Well, with every day that passes the evidence suggests otherwise.

It was easy to be taken in at first. After four years of the Trump administration’s tearing up of agreements, trashing of norms and generally getting right up the nose of long-standing allies, Biden’s promises were welcome relief.

Yet here we are just over one year on and many, especially in Europe, don’t see the US as a reliable or consistent partner anymore.

Just this summer, in his meetings with G-7 and Nato allies in Europe, Biden was still talking big, promising to take the lead in everything from tackling rising authoritarianism, and global cyber-security to the distribution of Covid-19 vaccines to developing nations.

Since then, Biden’s efforts to date have only compounded the notion among America’s allies that US resolve is faltering when it comes to being any kind of guarantor of a rules base order. What’s more, everywhere from Ukraine to Taiwan to Tehran, Washington’s adversaries have got whiff of US indecision and uncertainty and are increasingly testing it.

Make no mistake the Biden administration right now is facing what is tantamount to the biggest challenge to America’s global power since the end of the Cold War.

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In Europe there is Russia’s threat to Ukraine, in Asia it’s China laying claim to Taiwan and in the Middle East and beyond it’s Iran closing in on being able to manufacture a nuclear weapon.

Speaking generally, it’s prudent for America to champion democracy, even if at times it has had questionable credibility to position itself over the required values. But then there is the clumsiness of Biden’s foreign policy generally, as in the recent US hosted and much-touted “Summit for Democracy” which saw the US president convene more than 100 world leaders for a virtual event focusing on “renewing democracy in the United States and around the world”.

From the very outset this was a flawed concept which in the end, as many observers noted, did as much to alienate allies as it did to whitewash the reputation of autocratic regimes and their strongmen leaders.

As the Wall Street Journal rightly pointed out, no list of invitees could please everyone but some of the summit’s bizarre inclusions (Pakistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo) and questionable exclusions (Sri Lanka, Singapore) “suggest confusion rather than coherence”.

And there lies the rub, a US administration out of kilter with the pressing demands, realities and responsibilities urgently needing addressed to reassure allies and face down threats. Ever since that chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan over the summer America has rarely looked so vulnerable.

Biden by way of compensation sounds forceful at times warning the Russian President Vladimir Putin of the “severe consequences” were Russia to launch an attack on Ukraine. He talks tough too on maintaining sanctions on Iran and a “commitment” to defend Taiwan in the face of Chinese territorial ambitions – but all this sounding off sits at odds with any real evidence that Washington would step up to the plate.

As the Financial Times highlighted recently, there is already concern in parts of Europe at the Biden administration’s talk of reaching a new security “accommodation” with Russia in Europe.

Many eastern Nato members and US allies, who fear Putin is using the threat of military force to win concessions on the American security presence in Europe, are wary of Washington’s motives. Been here before with Washington – not least under Trump – and hung out to dry goes the prevailing thinking.

There are those – not least in the United States itself – who understandably welcome America’s reluctance to stand firm or use hard power across the world. But the fact remains that American military power remains unmatched and any retreat by Washington from the cause of helping maintain a global rules-based order will inevitably leave the world a more dangerous and uncertain place.

If America continues to prove unreliable then the stark reality is that other powers, especially those in Europe will have to think again, reinforcing or forging new alliances of their own while trying to keep Washington on side.

Diplomacy is king and must always be the first line of action in facing down foreign policy challenges and threats. But there is also much to be said for the age-old adage of “speak softly and carry a big stick”.

When US president Theodore Roosevelt first coined that phrase, he described foreign policy as “the exercise of intelligent forethought and of decisive action far in advance of any likely crisis”.

Today in the absence of such thinking Europe must be wary of over-reliance on the US as an ally. Eighty years on from the attack on Pearl Harbour it’s also worth remembering the words reputedly made by Japanese admiral Isoroku Yamamoto at the time about America: “I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”

America might not be asleep but Biden’s administration right now is certainly dozing in the face of threats from adversaries who see the moment to their advantage.

Maybe it’s time for Washington to shake itself awake and, at the very least, let its allies know whether they can once again count on the United States.