POOR Douglas Ross. The leader of the Scottish branch of the Christmas Party got a very unwelcome present in the shape of an opinion poll showing that the Conservatives are on track to lose all six of their remaining Westminster seats in Scotland, including his. The public in Scotland, as elsewhere in the UK, are not taking at all well the revelations that Boris Johnson and his associates have cheerfully and repeatedly broken all the Covid restrictions which his government had imposed on the rest of us.
Being the human embodiment of fake pockets on a pair of trousers, naturally the contingent of uselessness which passes for the Scottish Conservative representation at Westminster have spent the holiday season trying to pretend that the gross hypocrisy of their Westminster bosses has nothing at all to do with them. Judging by this latest opinion poll, carried out by Opinium for the Sunday Mail, the electorate in Scotland are not at all convinced by the "It wisnae me, it wis thae bad boys" act of Dougie and his pals.
This poll also shows support for independence tied in a dead heat with opposition to independence, with both on exactly 50%. Despite the crowing of the usual suspects among the staunch red, white and blue brigade on social media, this categorically does not mean that support for independence is falling.
The recent poll which placed support for independence on 55% was a telephone poll, this new poll for the Sunday Mail is an online poll. The two polls use totally different methodologies and cannot meaningfully be directly compared with one another. In fact this poll shows a decrease of just 1% in support for independence compared to the previous poll from the same company. Opinion polls are devised with a standard 3% margin of error, so a change of 1% is not statistically significant.
The consistent picture from polling over the past year has been that even in the absence of a firm date for a second referendum and without a high-profile Scottish Government-led independence campaign, support for independence remains consistently around the 50% mark. That's an exceptionally strong position from which to start once we do have a firm date for the next referendum, all the more so considering the anti-independence parties have destroyed most of the strongest arguments which they deployed against Scottish independence in 2014.
Meanwhile, the Johnson regime is proving yet again that while most people live and learn, Johnson just lives. Once again he is delaying taking action which could help to prevent the rapid spread of the coronavirus. The same thing happened during each of the previous waves of infection which swept through the globe, and certainly resulted in unnecessary deaths. Since the delay also necessitated more strict lockdown measures afterwards, it doesn't even protect those jobs and businesses that Johnson affects to be so concerned about.
Of course the real reason that Johnson is not adopting measures similar to those which came into force today in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is because he is being held hostage by his rebellious backbenchers and does not want to risk the damage that another humiliating vote in the Commons – where he relied upon Labour support in order to get his measures passed – would have on his battered and tattered authority.
Since it is only the Westminster government which has the financial powers necessary to introduce furlough payments to protect vulnerable sectors of the economy, it's not just Johnson who is being held hostage by the right-wing of the Conservative party. Scotland is too, and unnecessary deaths and job losses could very well be the tragic consequence. As we have seen with Brexit and throughout the pandemic, being a part of the UK does not protect Scotland – it puts this country at risk of needless harm. That will be the core message in the next referendum campaign.
This piece is an extract from today’s REAL Scottish Politics newsletter, which is emailed out at 7pm every weekday with a round-up of the day's top stories and exclusive analysis from the Wee Ginger Dug.
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