NO wonder Number 10 didn’t heave a sigh of relief after Allegra Stratton’s tearful farewell. They knew much worse was to come. And with his very own rule-breaking birthday party under investigation by the Metropolitan Police – and thus conveniently delaying the expected publication of the Sue Gray report – the most flagrant breach of lockdown legislation by rule-maker-in-chief Boris Johnson is the total talk of the steamie.

No matter how bullish his spluttering performance at Prime Ministers’ Questions. No matter how fevered the yelling from Tory backbenchers. The Prime Minister is still toast. A new Tory leader is on the way.

The big question for Yessers – what does that mean for indyref2?

It means Nicola Sturgeon must come out of Covid recovery mode, demand that the incoming Tory leader submits him or herself to an early General Election, hand them a Section 30 order and plan an actual – not virtual – SNP spring conference with Mike Russell delivering his promised report back on the big issues – currency, borders and EU membership. Thereafter the campaign for indyref2 should follow the legislative timetable for the draft bill.

READ MORE: Why Yes may not win the economics debate but still win indyref2, according to John Curtice

Actually, the first part of this fits with the FM’s own change in mood music – she said last weekend that her government would decide “within weeks” when to introduce paving legislation for indyref2.

But greater action is needed – otherwise it will not just be Sophie Raworth suggesting that Sturgeon is “all gong and no dinner” (to quote my late mum).

Fair enough, the opposition parties have happily given the Tories space to tear themselves apart. But the May local elections will be more than a test of support for SNP councils – they will be interpreted as a vote for or against independence as well. Of course, those elections are almost bound to result in more SNP councillors at the expense of Conservatives – but that success should also sound a cautionary note for the SNP leader.

Last time around, under Ruth Davidson, the Tories hit their local authority high-water mark precisely because Sturgeon “took independence off the table” – but they did not. And they never will again.

So indy talk without action isn’t good enough. It’s not sufficiently half-hearted to quell the Tories, nor fulsome enough to rally activists.

And certainly not convincing enough to keep the media interested and respectful of the whole independence project.

With Brexit done (apart from the big loose end of the Northern Ireland protocol) and the news machine that is Boris Johnson soon to be replaced by someone altogether less flaky/flamboyant, the London media will be looking for the next dramatic crack in the Good Ship Britannia.

Since the indyref vote of 2014, the UK has been gripped by a series of constitutional crises and schisms. It’s a process of constitutional breakdown, it sells papers and the UK media is now addicted to the adrenaline-pumping prospect of imminent disaster.

A bust-up with Scotland sounds likely and exciting and would postpone the awful moment of reckoning when the media must finally go cold turkey and put energy and imagination into the climate emergency, cost-of-living crisis, endemic social and racial inequality and other ordinary pain.

In short, the London networks are guaranteed to ask the Scottish First Minister for her reaction to a new Tory leader and Prime Minister. And then, she must come out fighting, with all her ducks in a row.

Of course, no strategy should be chosen or timed just to suit London papers. But despite their pro-UK tilt, most of the press (the Express and Mail excepted) have developed a grudging respect for the FM’s solid support in Scotland and the contrast with their own chaotic PM throughout Covid, and the undeniable fact that support for independence has beaten or level-pegged the status quo for over a year.

Everyone expects the First Minister to act now – especially the most important folk, Scottish voters. If the FM misses the moment and kicks the ball off the park, she will be labelled feart. And that will not just be hard to shrug off later, it will be impossible.

Johnson’s political demise must become a turning point in Nicola Sturgeon’s low key independence strategy, unless she is to be remembered only as the woman who saw Scotland through Covid.

SO, what needs to happen and when?

Boris Replacement Day may be a few months distant since he looks set to eke out the process and force a vote of no confidence instead of going gracefully. That should already have triggered a frenzy of preparatory independence activity within the Scottish Government.

It doesn’t look as if much has been done to replace the Growth Commission strategy but an alternative must be launched soon – so the inevitable flak that surrounds a change in direction is cleared down before a second vote. It’s also important that the SNP leadership owns its new policy instead of commissioning another “arms-length” report or waiting for a few well organised activists to circumvent its own tight control of conference procedure and foist a new economic policy upon it.

We’ve got a new Minister for Transport – which is grand. But how about a new Minister for Independence? The mandate is there. After fighting the pandemic for two years, a “fresh pair of legs on the park” would be gey useful. And it would be the clearest possible statement of intent.

And intent is vital – because whoever is chosen to replace Johnson, the Scottish Conservatives will back them to the hilt and demand a tough stance, ruling out a second indyref.

Douglas Ross and his merry band will then come off the back foot and into the next General Election campaign talking incessantly about the “threat” of independence. It’s a vote winner for them, there’s no other game in town and opposition even to a second vote usefully obscures the fact their domestic policies are True-Blue London Tory.

So, a “No Surrender” stance on indyref2 is bound to be adopted by Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak or whoever finally ousts Johnson, simply to get their own 11 Scottish Conservative MPs back on side. But make no mistake – things have changed.

Even though the Section 30 order is bound to be rejected, its power, its leverage, comes from the timing of that rejection. Just before a General Election and rejection transforms that vote into a de facto verdict on independence, or at least the case for a second vote. Just after, and it means nothing.

Use it – soon – or lose it as a powerful rallying tactic.

MEANWHILE, the polls suggest Labour will not be able to form a new government on its own and will go into the next election with Gordon Brown’s wordier and weaker version of Chris Hanlon’s devo-max proposal.

So the SNP must not just join the fray – they must lead it, take a position and make the next General Election count.

Backtiming from that uncertain date to today, the moment for the launch of the indyref2 campaign has finally arrived.

WATCH: Keir Starmer accidentally makes the case for independence during PMQs

Of course, there’s uncertainty. Of course, there are new arguments and eight more years of Tory mismanagement to factor in. And of course, there hasn’t been much public discussion – as Professor John Curtice recently pointed out.

But fair’s fair. The Scottish media won’t scrutinise the case for independence, lest it breathes in new life. So, the only way to get Scots thinking and talking about the new post-Brexit, post-Covid reality facing Scotland – independent or devolved – is to actually start the indyref2 campaign.

Westminster may keep behaving like the last days of the Raj, but the Scottish Government must start gearing up.

To paraphrase Theresa May – at long last – now is the time.