THE Ukraine crisis: what caused it? How to resolve it?

It was the West who reneged on promises made during the breakup of the USSR. This is what is festering in the background.

There is absolutely no doubt that Russia is extremely concerned about its eastern border. This is no different from that felt by czarist imperial Russia.

After the Second World War, it was not so important, but it has now become front and centre again, with the collapse of the USSR.

It was made clear by Mikhail Gorbachev, during discussions in 1990 on German unification. The West understood, and James Baker, the US secretary of state, said during the discussions: “Not one step eastward” for a Nato expansion.

This intent was confirmed numerous times by other US diplomats, as well as by a range of European leaders.

So what did the West do? It took advantage of Russia’s weakened position with the break-up of the USSR and went ahead anyway. Between 1994 and 2004, numerous ex-Soviet satellite states were accepted into Nato.

It is now the 21st century, and Russia has recovered to a degree and is now prepared to use any opportunity to reassert itself, and to address what it considers injustices, stemming from the 1990s.

The 2014 re-annexation of Crimea by Russia was the first real indication of this new stance.

In 1783, the Crimean Peninsula became part of imperial Russia.

In 1954, the USSR handed back administrative control of Crimea to the Ukraine SSR.

Russia saw an opportunity in 2014 to correct this by military force, giving the West a “bloody nose” as a result!

Now in 2022, Belarus and Ukraine are the last two countries between Russia and European Nato. Belarus is of no concern. It is Ukraine’s potential membership of Nato that is the issue.

Another opportunity had arisen since 2020, and Russia has again seized on it to reassert itself, and to get the West back to the negotiating table.

Was establishing a significant military presence on the border the right thing to do? No! But what were Russia’s other choices? Considering the way the West treats Russia, probably none!

Why can’t the West put no Nato membership on the table and use it to gain resolution to the eastern Ukraine conflict?

Instead, President Biden’s response to the build-up was: “If Russia invades, there will no longer be a Nord Stream 2”.

When asked how, he said: “We will, I promise you, we’ll be able to do it.” But Nord Stream 2 is under the control of Germany! Biden is equally adamant that Ukraine’s possible membership of Nato is not negotiable.

Of course, the USA can always fall back on its favourite tactics: putting sanctions on any foreign company who is willing to support Nord Stream 2. But it is Europe’s decision over gas from Russia – not the USA’s!

Maybe this is just the usual US posturing, but it is not helping. The US needs to move on, accept Russia as a major power, and treat them accordingly. Get to the negotiating table!

The opportunity for Britain to act as an intermediate was never considered by Westminster. “Global Britain” had to make an aggressive charge to the front (“Charge of The Light Brigade” version two).

A rather pathetic attempt to impress the world by showing we are still a force to be reckoned with, deserving a place at the “top table”.

It is also a blatant Westminster attempt to distract from the mess that is happening in the UK. A mess that will be compounded if Russia invades!

The West needs to stop inflaming the situation; if Russia invades, it is as much the West’s fault.

The West must reach a diplomatic solution in which both sides save face. A solution that stops the Nato expansion, but also resolves the issue over eastern Ukraine.

We need to encourage Russia to see its best future is being close to Europe. It should have started in the 1990s, but it is not too late.

Europe needs to be at the vanguard of building bridges with Russia. Europe has the best chance of achieving this, and the UK needs to work with Europe to this end.

The USA needs to stop going it alone while expecting the rest to follow. It needs to rebuild relationships both with allies and Russia.

The alliance needs to focus on China. Why? President Xi Jinping has made it clear that China has mapped out a path for itself.

To achieve this, China will need to “lead the reform of the global governance system”. It is already executing this strategy!

Despite what the US thinks, it is not able to counteract China’s strategy alone. It needs to start working with, rather than dictating to, other nations, so as to develop an effective alliance.

It is the Ukrainian people who are going to suffer most if the invasion occurs. This time it will be the Russians, the last time it was the Americans.
Douglas Skoylas
Via email