THE so-called Union that Scotland is a part of increasingly looks like its jaiket is on a shoogly peg. According to a new poll, a large majority of people in Scotland – more than 60% – believe that the Union has less than 10 years left to run. Only a mere quarter of the population think that Scotland will still be a part of the UK in 10 years’ time.
The same poll also found that across the UK as a whole, fully one half of those polled thought that the UK will have ceased to exist in 10 years.
The same poll also found that a majority of those polled in Scotland are currently in favour of independence – 53.8% once don't knows and don't cares are removed.
What is highly significant is that the number who believe that Scotland will be independent in 10 years’ time is considerably larger than the number of those who say that they are currently minded to vote Yes in an independence referendum. This shows that support for the UK in Scotland is very weak, as a considerable proportion of those who say that they intend to vote No in an independence referendum expect that Scotland will become independent anyway.
These are people who are potentially open to persuasion in a future independence referendum campaign. If you believe that a political development is bound to happen anyway, that means that you already accept it as a realistic prospect and are therefore more willing to bow to the inevitable and to help shape it by adding your voice to a Yes campaign.
The poll also gives us an indication of the likely percentage of diehard opponents of independence in the Scottish population – that quarter of those polled who rejected the possibility of Scottish independence in 10 years’ time are likely to comprise for the most part those who would reject Scottish independence under all and any circumstances and who would never be open to any pro-independence arguments that the Yes campaign might make.
That quarter of the population is very similar to the 22% who voted Conservative in the constituency vote in last year's Holyrood election and the 23.5% who voted Tory in the regional list vote. These are people who are unlikely to be receptive to any messaging from the Yes campaign or any of the pro-independence parties in the next independence referendum campaign, and who will require considerable reassurance following a Yes vote in order to reconcile them to Scottish independence.
One thing that the Scottish Government and the pro-independence parties – whether represented in Holyrood or not – must not do is to repeat the arrogance and contempt for the losing side which was displayed by the Conservatives following the narrow victory for Leave in the 2016 EU referendum. The Tories practiced a scorched-earth, winner-takes-it-all policy of total and complete disregard for the 48% who had voted Remain. That is not the way to create a united country. The divisions and bitterness have only been magnified as a result of the decision of the Conservatives that the only opinions which mattered following that narrowest of victories for the Leave campaign were those of the hard-right Brextremist wing of the Tory party.
This makes the claim of the Conservatives that they wish to avoid a divisive independence referendum particularly galling and hypocritical. We must demonstrate when we achieve a victory for Yes in an independence referendum that the new Scottish state belongs as much to those who voted No as to those who voted Yes.
This piece is an extract from today’s REAL Scottish Politics newsletter, which is emailed out at 7pm every weekday with a round-up of the day's top stories and exclusive analysis from the Wee Ginger Dug.
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