Scottish independence will dominate the 2022 council election campaigns

May’s council election will be the last Scottish election before indyref2 – but whether all the parties like it or not, they are all about independence.

The Tories and Labour are warring over who can field the most extreme anti-independence candidates. Labour has forced many pro-indy or indy-agnostic candidates out of the system but is being attacked by the Tories for letting a few slip through.

The Tories selected a candidate – since dropped – who followed a YouTube channel posting videos of a former head of the Ku Klux Klan.

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The Conservatives are winning the battle to be the most Scotiaphobic party which, sadly, in some parts of Scotland, is what it takes to win council seats. The Unionist parties want to make the council elections about independence and send a message to the voters that now is not the time for indyref2.

The SNP (so far) do not want it to be about independence and seem to think that they can win big by making the council elections a vote of no-confidence in Westminster – Brexit, Partygate, the cost of living crisis, etc – but they are wrong. This is the same dynamic as the 2017 snap General Election. Then the Tories corralled the No vote while the SNP, having first promised indyref2 and marched the Yes movement up the hill, then tried to march them down again, claiming it wasn’t about independence when it was. As a result, the SNP’s support stayed home, and they lost 21 seats.

I honestly think that the SNP and Greens wanted to pass the final part of the Referendums (Scotland) Bill before now, but they backed off due to the Ukraine crisis. However, not due to a belief that Russia’s invasion is so important that everything else must go on hold, but rather to ensure we move at a time when we will have the profile, momentum and public awareness to win the PR battle that follows the bill.

Westminster will almost certainly go to court to try to stop a Holyrood-led referendum, claiming it lacks constitutional powers. Clearly, that would demonstrate Westminster’s lack of respect for the democratic referendum mandate delivered by Scottish voters, which would add several percentage points to Yes support – but only if the public attention isn’t obscured by the fog of war.

If the SNP want to avoid going backwards, they must combine three campaign elements. Firstly, attacks on Westminster’s dire record. Secondly, positive messages on their austerity mitigation activities, such as increased carer’s allowance, business rates support and increased child support payments. Finally, only a clear statement of intent from Holyrood to hold indyref2 will get Yes voters to care about the council results.

Contrary to widely held belief, there is no state of purdah before council elections and so the SNP/Green government can still bring the Referendums Bill to Holyrood after the Easter break and before May’s vote.

I hope the Scottish Government has the nerve to make that call, not because I care about the SNP winning councils, but for the sake of the Yes movement. As I suggested above, I have a different outlook on the council elections. Holyrood confirming that the referendum will go ahead will create the space for the Yes movement to heal and come together to plan how to win our nation’s freedom from this dysfunctional Union.

READ MORE: Arbroath Scottish independence rally to show 'unity is bedrock of Yes movement'

May will be the last election before the 2023 referendum and, whereas the 2014 vote was an SNP-led campaign, indyref2 will be a grassroots-led campaign. The Yes movement needs to form a cohesive civic campaign that projects the benefits of independence, not as the ambition of politicians but as the stated will of the Scottish people – much in the way that the devolution campaign worked.

If the Yes movement is divided, we will be defeated. Politicians can’t convince the undecided, the political angle is too tribalised now – they have done as much as they can. It will be peer-to-peer conversations at work, in the pub, over social media, on the streets and on the doorsteps that will win the hearts and minds of those that are still unconvinced.

The 2014 vote was largely a set-piece political battle, but indyref2 will be a national conversation between those that believe in Scotland and those that want to believe and just need to know how much more ambitious we are for Scotland than Westminster is.

There are key policy statements for the Scottish Government to approve: a total commitment to rejoining the EU, no watering down or complicating the issue with talk of Efta. A commitment to a better pension, reinstating and backdating the triple lock and compensating Waspi women. A plan to turn the north-east into a world leader in renewable energy generation and technology and a commitment to a truly wellbeing-led economy, as a juxtaposition to Westminster’s deepening neo-capitalistic disaster. Those are not bitter pills for Scotland’s two parties of government to swallow – one wonders why it’s taking so long?

I still believe the SNP are serious about holding a referendum in 2023, not because they have started bigging up that prospect in the press ahead of another election – that’s what political parties do, don’t be too harsh on them. The reason, I think, is that the SNP have no choice; if they go into the 2024 General Election not having used their mandate, they will have lost their ability to motivate Yes voters, they will lose circa 15 seats and all momentum towards independence.

In the hope that the SNP are willing to take advice on how to avoid going backwards in May and set up a 2023 Yes vote, let me borrow from the famous Clinton campaign team epiphany once again – it’s the constitution, stupid.

Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp is the chief executive of Business for Scotland and the founder of the Believe in Scotland campaign