Scotland cannot afford to be part of a Tory or Labour UK

So said the chief executive of the Scotch Whisky Association back in June 2016, just a week before the EU referendum vote.

That vote – heavily corrupted as we now know by dark money, Russian meddling, hard-right politics and Johnsonian ambition – resulted in a narrow victory for the Leave campaign in England and Wales but not in Scotland or Northern Ireland.

Parts of that campaign, as Peter Geoghegan’s excellent if frightening book Democracy For Sale illustrates, lied repeatedly about the likely outcome of leaving the EU, deceitfully manipulated voters via social media and sought every possible way to circumvent electoral regulations.

A few days after the poll, the then UK shadow immigration minister called the decision to leave the EU “catastrophic” and resigned from the Labour frontbench, as part of an organised push to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn, not least because of Corbyn’s equivocation about Brexit. That individual later argued vigorously for a second EU referendum during which, he openly admitted, he would campaign for a Remain vote.

This week, both those people were in the media taking precisely the opposite position from that they espoused so strongly only a few years ago. The first – then plain David Frost, an obscure former diplomat, but now the very grand and voluble Lord Frost of Allenton, former chief Brexit negotiator – used his Telegraph column to denounce those who claim that Brexit has been a disaster and demanded persistence and further belt tightening in order to win through to a pure British Brexit.

Meanwhile, the second – Keir Starmer, Corbyn’s successor as leader of the Labour Party – told LBC that there was “no case” for rejoining the EU and that the only problem was the way the Tories had negotiated the split. He was determined to “make Brexit work”.

What a difference a few years make – though perhaps it is not time that changes the minds and principles of politicians, but ambition. Brexit has made Frost the preening hero of the Tory Brexiteer right, while Starmer sees recapturing former Labour voters who supported Brexit as an essential step to winning at Westminster.

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The problem that both have, however, is that they are swimming against that most fundamental changer of minds – the tide of facts. The dismal economic facts of Brexit are becoming clearer every day, the difficult trading facts are obvious in every lorry queue, the employment facts are seen in continuing labour shortages, the human facts are revealed both by the disgraceful failure to open our borders to Ukrainian refugees and by the queues at passport control for even casual travellers to Europe, the geopolitical facts by the marginalisation of the UK and the perpetual crisis in Northern Ireland, and the polling facts by the clear majority who now think that Brexit was a bad idea.

Brexit is, however, not going to go away any time soon. The poisonously divisive nature of the current social media culture, the dominance of money as the key influencer in UK politics and the selfish ruthlessness of the British establishment will try and keep that show on the road for a while yet, and that is a fact that Scotland needs to face up to as we move towards the next indyref.

That British establishment and its compliant media have never accepted the Scottish public’s choice of an SNP government. Consequently, they constantly and stridently seek to de-legitimise four successive SNP election victories, including the result last May which saw the highest vote for a political party since devolution.

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They also seek to drive independence from serious and proper democratic consideration by an aggressively hostile reaction to even its mildest expression, essentially characterising it as an irresponsible and ignorant thought crime which must never be permitted to mention even its name.

Wiser heads might realise that to take an approach which effectively outlaws the view and voice of at least half of Scotland’s voting population is not sensible – nor is any narrative, in the end, believable if it insists that everything is the responsibility of the Scottish Government and that every failure or mistake in any sphere of life has been brought about by nationalist incompetence, ignorance, deceit or ill will.

But those wiser heads, if they exist, may also in time realise that manoeuvring Labour into a Brexit-supporting position has unwittingly closed off a long-standing ploy which sometimes worked in the Unionists’ favour. The “aye hopin” argument is trotted out by Labour politicians, journalists and fellow travellers at every Westminster election.

A Labour government, the argument runs, will give a bit more of a say to Scotland, and treat it a bit better than the Tories. All you have to do is wait for that government to come along, vote for it rather than the nasty nats, and all will be well.

Now, though, the refusal by either UK party to countenance being part of the EU ever again condemns the people of Scotland to some utterly inevitable outcomes no matter who is in power in London.

These include a lower standard of living, higher costs, more difficult international travel, continued shortages of labour in key areas, decreasing government expenditure, fewer legislative protections, increasing taxation and poorer services.

There is also no doubt about those outcomes. These are the only things that can ever be on offer from a declining Brexited Britain. In fact, they are already happening, no matter what Lord Frost or Keir Starmer assert, and they will go on happening to Scotland as long as we put our trust in any Westminster party.

The argument in 2014 was that Scotland couldn’t afford to be independent. Now, the undeniable fact is that we cannot afford to be part of either a Tory or Labour UK.