THE trick to winning indyref2 is for Yes campaigners to have better conversations with undecided voters.
Unionists want the independence movement answering a never-ending list of exaggerated scare stories. It doesn’t matter if every point is answered well – the point is to put Yes on the back foot and stop conversations about the positive vision for a better Scotland.
Slightly less obvious is that it’s also key not to have the conversations Yessers want to have. Yes supporters have been debating “ideal solutions” and “blue sky ideas” that sound great on a Facebook group of dedicated independence supporters, but those just won’t fly on the doorstep.
In short, we need to have the discussions that the undecided want to have, and they want to understand what independence would mean to their lives. If we steer the national conversation onto our positive vision for Scotland then the concerns of the undecided and soft No voters will be with the Union and not with independence.
In no particular order, here are the issues that will likely define who wins indyref2:
1) Westminster is attacking Scottish devolution
The UK Government thinks Scotland’s sovereignty is its property and is dismantling our devolved Parliament’s powers in a process that has accelerated since Brexit, even though devolution is immensely popular.
The “Brexit Freedoms Bill” gives Westminster significantly enhanced powers over Scotland. The UK Government is setting a bonfire for Scotland’s democracy, human and worker’s rights and protections. The Internal Markets Act was forced on Scotland. This makes divergence between the UK nations on trade rules illegal.
“Levelling Up” isn’t just a slogan, it’s cover for UK Government interference in devolved spending. With 8.4% of the population, Scotland has received just 3.5% of the Levelling Up funds – far less than the EU funds it replaces.
The Scottish Government has also found itself having to spend £600 million per year from its tight budget mitigating Westminster’s cuts.
2) Reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU
Many independence campaigners think joining EFTA is better than rejoining the EU. It’s a good plan B – but it’s difficult to explain on the doorstep. Half the people I ask can’t even say what EFTA stands for and a rapid associate membership route to rejoining the EU should be the gold standard.
Last year, I polled 3000 Yes voters and found that 98% of No to Yes switchers moved to Yes because of Brexit. The SNP and the Greens will also make sure that rejoining the EU is a key independence manifesto pledge. So it’s a done deal.
3) Scotland is a wealthy nation
Scotland’s ability to thrive as an independent nation is not in question, but there are are a couple of huge questions about our economy that we should ask undecided voters:
- Why, when Scotland is a country with an almost unmatched abundance of economic advantages, do we have a smaller economy than any similar-sized independent European nation?
- How come small-to-medium-sized independent nations such as Ireland, Denmark and Finland significantly outperform the UK (and therefore Scotland) across the full range of economic and wellbeing measures?
The answer is that those nations are independent.
Their governments work to enrich the lives of their citizens and are not handicapped by carrying the dead weight of a distant and dysfunctional Westminster parliament.
4) Scotland can lead the renewable energy revolution
An independent Scotland would be able to slash energy bills.
With only 8.4% of the UK population and 1% of Europe’s, Scotland possesses 25% of Europe’s offshore wind and tidal resource and 10% of Europe’s wave power potential. We generate 85% of the UK’s hydroelectric power and have 60% of it’s onshore wind capacity.
In 2020, Scotland generated 97.4% of its electricity needs from renewables, the cheapest form of energy. Recently, the cost of onshore wind power fell by 13% and offshore by 9%. Yet energy bills increased by 54% and could double again before the end of 2022.
Despite that, Scottish people pay the highest price for energy in the UK. Why? Because we are part of the UK, which generates 40% of its power by burning extortionately expensive gas.
5) An independent Scotland will pay a better pension
Wealthy nations shouldn’t have pensioners living in poverty. The UK is by far the largest country in northern Europe but every other country – Iceland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Ireland and Finland – pay a better pension to their older folk
Inflation has hit 9.4%, the cost of living is skyrocketing and the UK Government broke its triple-lock promise that pensions would match inflation – and that will cost pensioners almost £500 a year.
Female pensioner poverty is rising unacceptably fast. Since 2014, pensioner poverty has increased from 12% to 16% for males, but from 14% to 20% for females.
Successive UK Governments of all colours have kept pensions deliberately low, forcing people to buy private pensions to boost the city of London – but that forces pensioners who can’t afford private pensions into poverty.
The Scottish Government has yet to commit to a number in its indyref2 papers; it must make that commitment soon. I think it should be at least £220 a week to end pensioner poverty.
If you explain that independence is not about politics but about building a better Scotland, based on our shared values of fairness, equality, internationalism, shared prosperity and wellbeing – you will often get their vote. Let’s make this the national conversation.
Gordon MacIntyre-Kemp is the founder of the Believe in Scotland campaign and CEO of Business for Scotland
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