STEPHEN Flynn's first outing at Prime Minister's Questions could not have got off to a better start.

He was confident and assured, buoyed up no doubt by the publication this morning of an opinion poll giving great news for independence support and for the strategy of using the next UK General Election as a de facto referendum following the decision of the UK Supreme Court that Scotland cannot decide for itself whether it wants another independence referendum.

It turns out that the people of Scotland do not take kindly to being told that they need the permission of a prime minister they didn't vote for in order to decide about Scotland's future. Well, that's a surprise.

Today's poll for STV by Ipsos Mori shows a 6% rise in support for independence since the last poll by the company in May. Significantly, this is a rise greater than the 3% margin of error which is standard in opinion polling. 56% would vote Yes and 44% No in an independence referendum.

This is the second poll since the Supreme Court ruling which has put Yes ahead – a poll by Redfield and Wilson last week put Yes on 52%. There was also the Channel 4 poll on the night of the ruling which likewise put Yes ahead, although that poll used a non-standard question. That gives us three polls in a row which puts Yes ahead.

However, we know that the anti-independence parties are running scared of another referendum and are determined to block it and to run roughshod over the democratic will of the people of Scotland, so the real question is: how are voters responding to the plan to use the next General Election as a de facto referendum?

The really good news here is that voters seem to like the plan and support for the SNP alone and total support for pro-independence parties in that General Election is above the crucial 50% threshold. 51% of respondents report that they would vote SNP in the next UK General Election – a rise of 7% over the last poll from the same company. An additional 3% would vote for the independence-supporting Greens. 

These figures would give the SNP all but one of Scotland's Westminster seats. The Tories and LibDems would be wiped out. Labour would retain one seat, presumably the Red Morningside seat of Ian Murray, where he clings on thanks to Conservative tactical voting. Labour are going to have to do a great deal more than Gordie Broon's insipid proposals for constitutional reform if they want to save themselves from Scottish political irrelevance.

However, as polling expert John Curtice has noted, Labour have effectively given up on Scotland, which is why they are doubling down on Brexit. Labour have calculated that the route to power lies through the Brexit-supporting seats in the north and Midlands of England which they lost to the Tories in 2019. Scotland is to be sacrificed on the altar of English nationalist Brexit fantasies.

Nicola Sturgeon remains head and shoulders ahead of the other Scottish party leaders in terms of approval rating, with more than half of voters having a favourable view of her. The approval ratings of Douglas Ross are truly dire, befitting the truly dire leader of a truly dire party. Ross is by far the most disliked politician among Scottish voters, with a net rating of -38, even worse than Rishi Sunak who has a rating of -21%.

Even better for the SNP, if the next UK General Election is framed as a de facto referendum, support for the SNP actually rises to 53%. Together with the 2% recorded for the Greens (this appears to be a non-statistically significant rounding difference), the two largest Yes parties would take a comfortable 55% to 56% of votes cast between them and would obliterate the anti-independence parties, leaving just the lonely voice of Ian Murray bleating in the electoral wilderness. Additionally, a total of 69% want an independence vote within the term of this Scottish Parliament.

More polls are needed, but the early signs are that Labour's recent surge in support in England is not being replicated in Scotland due to the party's intransigence on the issue of an independence referendum and Starmer's decision to support the same hardline and uncompromising support for Brexit and cruel anti-migrant policies as the Tories. Scottish voters in search of a real alternative have one in the shape of the SNP and a vote for independence.

However, in the meantime, we can redouble our efforts to build support for independence with the reassuring knowledge that a victory in a de facto referendum is within our grasp, and is not the impossibility that so many anti-independence commentators like to make out that it is.

This piece is an extract from today’s REAL Scottish Politics newsletter, which is emailed out at 7pm every weekday with a round-up of the day's top stories and exclusive analysis from the Wee Ginger Dug.

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