Unity is vital if Scottish independence is to reverse Brexit damage

It is worse now, because so much of ­public ­infrastructure has been sold off, and the ­manufacturing base has been destroyed. ­Margaret Thatcher left us with a ­dangerously unbalanced economy based on retail and ­finance.

The Bank of England says that inflation is driven by pay rises, despite wages falling in real terms. Its response is to raise interest rates. That is unsurprising: if you only have a hammer, ­every problem is a nail.

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These interest rate rises are pushing the long-struggling middle class into poverty, as people find it impossible to bench-press heavy ­mortgages. As discretionary expenditure falls, people spend less in already struggling shops and businesses, and a crippling recession will be triggered. People will lose their jobs, struggle to sell their homes and be trapped in negative equity.

Tax revenues will fall, and this will be used as a pretext for further austerity. A state already starved of the resources it needs to maintain a flourishing life will be pared even further, to the point of severe dysfunction.

It is a nightmare. Only a government blinded by ideology, actively wishing to inflict harm, or incompetent beyond measure, would pursue such a policy.

The economic ideology of neo-liberalism ­asserts that monetary policy (controlling the price of money, i.e. the interest rate) is the only means to control inflation. It also ­insists that controlling inflation is primarily the ­responsibility of central banks.

But inflation is not caused by low ­interest rates. We enjoyed low interest rates and low ­inflation for a long time, which should be enough to debunk the monetarists. Rather, ­inflation is caused by scarcity of resources. If there are not enough Dingsbums to go around, the price of Dingsbums goes up.

The biggest problem the UK economy is ­facing is a rise in the price of Dingsbums. We can no longer easily source our Dingsbums, because they are made in Germany. We can’t get fresh Cosas from Spain. Woe betide the innocent ­fellow who tries to get a crate of Quelque Chose from France. Customs charges and delays, a lack of drivers, paperwork – it all adds to the cost of getting things in. That makes importing less attractive. Some decide not to bother – the British market just is no longer worth the ­hassle – so a shortage of supply makes prices go up.

At the same time, small businesses in ­Scotland that used to export to the continent are driven into the red by the inability to meet their ­customers’ needs. I went to lunch just ­outside Toulouse recently and my steak came from Irish cows – it could once have come from Scottish cows, supporting Scottish farmers, but not anymore. If only the farmers had seen that, and voted for independence and against Brexit; but they, like the rest of us, were lied to.

Brexit might not be the sole cause of ­shortages (we cannot discount the war in Ukraine, or the wider effects of climate change). However, ­neither of these are visible if you visit a French supermarket, brimming with affordable produce. Brexit is the one main reason why the UK is in a much more precarious position than the rest of Europe.

For centuries, British imperial strategy was to win wars by the use of sea-power; using the navy to impede the enemy’s trade and starve them into submission. It is perhaps fitting that the end of the British state should come by ­blockading itself, not behind a screen of frigates but behind a wall of self-inflicted trade barriers.

The priority for the Scottish economy must be to get back into the customs union and the single market. There is no easy way to do that. Voting Labour won’t do that.

The EU will be very wary of a British ­application. The UK has lost the trust of ­European partners. Not so Scotland. People in Europe know Scotland voted to remain and know there is a political consensus for being a good European partner.

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The only way into Europe is to get out of the UK. This makes independence more urgent than ever. We simply cannot afford the risks of being in the UK.

There is a strong case for using the next ­Westminster election as a plebiscite on ­independence. However, we must recognise that support for the SNP now lags behind ­support for independence. If the SNP insist on going solo, treating independence as if it belonged to one party alone, we might lose. If we really want independence, we must build the broadest pro-independence coalition possible, not ­allowing personal feuds to divide us.

The TNT show returns on July 26