THE recall petition that ended Margaret Ferrier’s career in parliament has set the stage for what will be a fiercely contested by-election in Rutherglen and Hamilton West.
When Margaret Ferrier’s ill-advised Covid breach was made known, I was critical of her recklessness and poor decision making.
She was my MP and – aside from the events that eventually led to her losing her seat – I thought she did the job well. She was diligent and hard-working: her focus was always on local issues, rather than the clout-chasing, studio-hopping antics we see from some Scottish MPs.
The by-election will be held in October. From now until polling day, we need to move away from the media circus surrounding Ferrier’s departure and focus instead on the issues affecting local voters.
It can’t be a campaign where the constituents of Rutherglen and Hamilton West are asked, once again, to cast their verdict on the mistakes that Margaret Ferrier made.
That matter has been settled through the recall petition vote. Margaret Ferrier has paid the ultimate price a politician can when they have been found to have done something wrong and now she deserves peace and space to move on with her life.
The by-election is being touted as a pivotal moment for both Humza Yousaf and Anas Sarwar.
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It is the first big electoral test for both leaders.
A Scottish Labour victory would be heralded as a great revival of the party’s fortunes north of the Border.
An SNP win would give the party a much-needed morale boost after a rocky period of infighting and instability.
While the by-election was only confirmed when the recall petition closed last week, both parties have been campaigning in the area for months.
It is a long-standing bugbear of mine that I have never been canvassed. I’ve lived in my flat for 11 years and there have been countless local, Scottish and UK elections during that time, yet my door remains stubbornly un-chapped.
Until recently, the only activists I’ve ever seen in my street delivering leaflets were Lib Dem members.
A few months ago (before we were hit with the wettest summer in living memory) I was in the front garden pottering about with bedding plants when a squadron of Labour activists, led by Jackie Baillie, descended upon our wee street.
I thought I was finally about to become one of those people that politicians tweet about when they say what they’re hearing “on the doorsteps” – but no such luck. They greeted me as they walked to the big houses on the other side of the road but I didn’t get so much as a leaflet.
The issues affecting our area are much the same as the rest of the country.
The cost of living crisis has exacerbated existing deprivation and inequality.
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I wonder what message Keir Starmer will have for local people worried about their bills, when he makes the obligatory trip up north to ask for our vote.
His recent U-turn over scrapping the two-child limit for tax credits will be a focal point for voters and journalists alike.
At our local foodbank, we see the impact that the Tories’ punitive attacks on low-income families has had.
Keir Starmer’s Tory-lite approach to social security will continue to perpetuate that harm.
One of the biggest challenges for Scottish Labour in the October by-election will be to show unity with the UK party while also trying to distance themselves from the policies that they insist they disagree with.
Voters aren’t daft – they won’t believe promises made by the Scottish Labour candidate that have already been dismissed by Sir Keir.
The SNP have no such worry: they have a clear and evidenced stance on welfare and measures to alleviate poverty. The hurdle they face in the by-election will be in overcoming the perception that the party is in a state of turmoil and dysfunction.
As the investigation into SNP finances continues, the SNP have a tough job on their hands to reset the conversation.
They also have to contend with the prospect of tactical voting. In a clear two-horse race between the SNP and Labour, it is highly likely that many Tory voters will lend their votes to Labour to defeat the SNP.
This might just be enough to tip the scales in favour of Scottish Labour, but it wouldn’t be as significant as a clear SNP defeat would be.
If the SNP’s vote share largely holds, but Scottish Labour edge over the line through Tory votes, then that wouldn’t tell us very much about how the next General Election is likely to play out in Scotland.
It is a steep drop in vote share that Humza Yousaf will be most worried about – and the party will be doing all it can to avoid in the months ahead.
Both party leaders have a lot to lose on polling day. Who knows, the stakes might even be high enough for somebody to knock on my door and ask for my vote.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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