LIVING with uncertainty is a fact of life. We all have to do it, all the time. By large, we manage. That’s because for most of us, most of the time, there is enough that we can rely on to accept the risk that some things are bound to go wrong.

As an economist, I worry about the times when this assumption does not hold true. As we all know, there can be moments when most things seem to be bleak. At those moments the truths that we can hold onto are few and far between.

The state of an economy is pretty heavily dependent upon the relationship that most people within it have with risk and uncertainty at any moment. If a majority feel that the risks that they face are manageable, then they are optimistic.

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As a consequence, the economy tends to work quite well. When the opposite happens, and the majority of people feel overwhelmed by risk or anxiety, then recession is likely.

The reason for that is quite straightforward. Worried people do not spend. They instinctively save because they think that there are more rainy days than they are used to on the horizon. That simple act of saving is, when commonplace right across the economy, enough to tip a place into recession.

The chance that this will happen at this moment is quite high, for many reasons.

No one can deny that Scottish politics are in a state of flux. One of the certainties of the last fifteen years, which was that the SNP knew what they were doing, is open to doubt.

The Tories are sowing seed and division right across society. Its impact is all too obvious.

I wish I knew what Labour was doing, but like almost everyone else, I do not. They are dithering their way to government, and that’s a nightmare scenario.

Looking beyond our shores, there is Gaza to worry about, and the aggression of Israel.

Similarly, Ukraine is still in a state of war, and Putin remains a real threat.

Meanwhile, in the USA, the risk that Trump (below) might be returned to office is beginning to be taken seriously again, and there are good reasons to doubt whether US democracy would survive if he did. Worldwide military and economic tensions would almost certainly increase as a consequence of his re-election.

The National: Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump

Put all these factors together, plus the enormous challenge that climate change represents that almost no government now seems willing to tackle, and the risk of recession appears to be very high indeed.

So what has this to do with a column in The National today? I have three suggestions.

The first is that Scotland could excuse itself from so many of the problems being deliberately created by Westminster orientated parties if only it was to be independent. The need for a strong independence movement, whether led by the SNP or not, has never been greater.

Second, independence might give Scotland the chance to elect a government that understood that its task was to manage this type of uncertainty to protect the well-being of the people of the country.

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At present, neither the Tories nor Labour show any inclination to understand this, with both of them totally dedicated to the belief that market forces must dictate what happens in the world around us.

Third, governments in the UK and US in particular, where two-party systems of government dominate, appear to be especially out of line with the thinking of their electorates. If Scotland was to be independent, it could have a genuinely proportional representative system for electing governments. Overall, these increase political stability and reduce the chance of idiots being put in charge.

In a time of significant economic uncertainty, clinging to the hope of independence is definitely worthwhile.