POLITICS in Scotland still falls heavily along constitutional lines – but will the SNP be able to galvanise support of Yessers to win the next General Election?
Speaking on the Holyrood Weekly podcast, professor John Curtice told The National that voters in Scotland vote for political parties depending on their view on independence and the Union more so than they did a decade ago.
With support for the SNP down in the polls, but independence remaining relatively stable, the professor joined our political reporter to discuss the upcoming General Election.
We told how the top pollster gave his verdict on two conflicting polls out earlier this week - stating that claims the latest polling shows Labour are gaining ground at the expense of the SNP is a “misinterpretation of the evidence”.
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Curtice explained that around 70% of Yes voters polled by Ipsos said they would vote SNP, but that a further 9% have said they would back other pro-independence parties such as the Greens or Alba.
“I think one of the interesting questions, in a sense I think the SNP’s hope and aspiration has to be is can it persuade some of those folk who still believe in independence to come back into the fold,” he told the podcast.
“And along the way, one of the things that will be hoping to be able to do, in particular, is perhaps to squeeze the support for the Greens.
“Greens, of course, tend not to do very well in the first past the post elections, and persuade them that, you know, if you vote Green, you're just gonna let the Labour Party in.”
He argued that the next UK-wide ballot will be a “battle for framing” between the SNP and Labour.
Labour will argue that voters are no longer interested in the constitution and the focus should be getting the Tories out of Westminster, he explained, while the SNP will want the conversation to be on independence.
“A battle on that framing for that minority, but crucial minority, of the pro-Yes vote is where that really that Labour-SNP battle is currently at,” he added.
Elsewhere, Curtice discusses the issues likely to dominate the General Election, how prominent Brexit will be in the campaign and the impact of Michael Matheson’s resignation as health secretary.
You can listen to Season 3: Episode 4 of Holyrood Weekly here, on Spotify and the Omny streaming platform.
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