"ON July 4 – Independence Day – make sure your voice is heard," John Swinney told  SNP members gathered for his party's election launch in Edinburgh. 

His former colleague (and now rival) Alex Salmond made the same observation after Rishi Sunak announced the election date. 

There is a real irony to this election falling on America's Independence Day, right as the SNP see their worst polling figures since before the 2014 referendum.

We all know the appetite for Scotland's independence hasn't gone away. Support has remained stable while the party most famously attached to the cause has witnessed ongoing, steady decline. 

Ignoring this, or suggesting the polling numbers are fixed, will not help the independence movement over these crucial next few weeks and months. Some realism is urgently required. 

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There are many challenges facing the SNP. But for this analysis piece, let me focus on just one – the party's relationship with independence.

Half of Scotland wants to see Scotland leave the Union. But do those people see it as an immediate priority for the SNP? 

As I attended the launch of the SNP's election campaign in Edinburgh's Grassmarket, I knew I had an opportunity to ask something substantive about their plans for independence. 

Swinney has been clear that independence will be line one of the manifesto, and even committed to maintaining the electoral strategy agreed by SNP conference. This mechanism involves the SNP securing a majority of Scottish seats, then using the result as a basis to begin negotiations with the UK Government on independence. 

The National: John Swinney speaks to the media at the Scottish Parliament

If the SNP are serious about this strategy and have a plan to turn their polling fortunes around in the coming weeks, they could be sitting down to discuss Scotland's future in the Union with UK officials very, very soon.

"As things stand, a majority of seats will start negotiations with the UK Government for independence," I put to the First Minister this afternoon. "What preparation is under way now for those negotiations?"

Unfortunately, independence supporters watching along at home have no further indication of how seriously that work is being taken.

"Well obviously the Government's set out the Building A New Scotland series of papers," the SNP chief said. "It sets out many of the arguments which have got to be taken forward and addressed. And we'll build on the foundations of that case as we build the strength of that position in the aftermath of a successful election campaign."

It doesn't sound like a leader expecting to start negotiations in July. It sounds like the party would rather build the case with the public and bring people on board. It sounds like the plan agreed by SNP members is being quietly reneged on.

If that's the case, people need to be told. Activists on the doorsteps do not have a clear story to sell potential voters. Is this putting independence on the ballot paper itself, or another step on the journey to self-determination? A new leader has every right to change strategies and policies, but they should at least be upfront with the membership about that.

If Swinney really does want to take the people with him, he also needs to consider how those Building A New Scotland papers are working. A few years into the project, do activists feel they are helping them make the case to friends and family? New, engaging work is needed to bring people on side. A good start would be refreshing the yes.scot website, which hasn't even been updated since December 22, 2023. 

The truth is, the gradualist position never really changed. Whether it was Nicola Sturgeon, Humza Yousaf or now Swinney. What has changed is the packaging. Should the SNP want to outperform the pollsters' predictions, that packaging requires an editing eye.