Keir Starmer will have same disdain for Scottish issues as Rishi Sunak

That much is cause for celebration but those whose ultimate aim is Scotland’s independence need to calculate carefully what we want to see happen next.

The majority of UK voters are united in a desire to see the long-awaited end of a Tory cabal which has destroyed our international standing, left our human rights record in shreds and ruined the economy. Good riddance.

The problem is – will the replacement be any better?

There is no doubt the reins of power at Westminster will now be taken up by Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, a party that stands for nothing and has a pitiful record in following through even the most moderate promises.

READ MORE: 'Oh dear': Commons Deputy Speaker mocks Scottish indy bill

Starmer has ruled out any notion of scrapping Brexit, a move which most UK voters will support.

He will not scrap odious legislation such as the rape clause. He will not extend the ability of trade unions to protect workers’ rights or devolve the powers to the Scottish Parliament to do so.

He will not stop the sale of British arms to Israel or in any way recognise that the slaughter of innocent Palestinians in Gaza amounts to genocide or take any action to hasten its end.

He will not show any understanding that Westminster’s refusal to allow another referendum on Scottish independence under any circumstance is a shocking two fingers to any definition of democracy.

And he will never allow the Scottish “branch” of his own party any room to formulate its own response to any issue, even those which affect mainly or exclusively Scotland and that have been voted on in the Scottish Parliament.

Labour under Starmer offer no inspiring hope – particularly to Scotland – but it’s still untrue to say they will be no better than the Tories. They will be better, even if that’s only because it would be impossible to be worse.

And that makes it difficult to argue against the simplistic message that if you want to be sure of showing the door to Sunak’s bunch your best choice is to vote Labour.

It is that message – more than any growing support for Labour-specific policies – that has been responsible for the party’s improved showing in opinion polls. It was that message that helped them win the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election last October, rather than any reduction in the SNP vote.

And it’s still that message that represents the most attractive reason to vote Labour in the upcoming General Election – which may have been cancelled by the time you read this if Sunak has been kicked out by furious MPs in his own party.

But because there is a kernel of truth in that message does not mean it represents the best choice for Scottish voters. Let’s be clear … that is very far from the case.

The polls have suggested for some time now that the Labour victory will be a landslide. The more voters support Starmer south of the Border, the less he will pay the blindest bit of attention to Scottish voters and Scottish issues. Left to his own devices, he has shown that he does not give a toss.

In this, he is no different to Sunak, whose election plans already demonstrate how little he factors Scotland into his decisions by scheduling the election for a time when many Scottish families have already booked – and paid for – their summer holidays after the schools break up.

Sunak’s obviously been listening too intently to his Scottish lieutenant Douglas Ross, who has mastered the skill of talking utter rubbish while managing to keep a straight face.

He was at it again after Sunak’s soaking, insisting the Tories will beat the SNP “in crucial seats up and down Scotland”.

Anyone with half a brain is expecting the staggering total of seven Conservative MPs in Scotland to lose their seats if not their deposits in the election. Their chance of defeating any election candidate in any ward is precisely zero.

Yet Sunak is deluded enough to reject all the evidence that a visit north of the Border by any Tory prime minister is a surefire vote loser and scheduled a trip to speak alongside Ross in Inverness.

Starmer will also hit the campaign trail to Scotland, where he will no doubt be joined by Anas Sarwar, the party’s leader in Scotland, whom he has already humiliated by speaking against the trans rights that Sarwar and other Labour MSPs voted for at Holyrood and by rejecting his pleas for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.

The Labour leader is confident enough of poll predictions of a significant election success to be sniffily dismissive of any suggestions that he recognise and take on board any lessons from 17 years of SNP success in Scotland.

There are currently 63 SNP MSPs in the Scottish Parliament. His party has just 22. There are 43 SNP MPs at Westminster. Labour have just two Scottish MPs. Even in their most fevered dreams, few Labour supporters envisage Labour becoming the most dominant party on the Scottish benches at Westminster at this election.

I am not one of those who argue that the SNP’s electoral successes are in themselves a mandate for independence itself – but it would be impossible to argue that votes for a party with independence in its DNA did not represent either support for independence or at the very least no great aversion to it.

So it’s arrogant and anti-democratic for Starmer to rule out even the opportunity to put the question to voters regardless of how many people vote for it even when the SNP put the issue at the heart of its election campaign.

The big question is how can we agree that the Labour Party – while far from perfect – is the best – indeed, only – option to replace the Tories as the Westminster government while seeking the ability to influence some of its policies, including its opposition to indyref2?

The only way I can see to achieve this is to return as many SNP MPs as possible.

There are two risks attached to this tactic. The first is that it reduces the Labour vote to the extent it allows the Tories to form the next Westminster government. The chances of this, given the size of the Labour lead in the polls, is miniscule.

This, remember, is a Conservative Party too dumb to check the weather forecast before scheduling a major outdoors speech.

Remember too, that history tells us that Scottish votes rarely determine the result of a Westminster election. There really must be a limit on how much self-harm is appropriate for Scotland to accept to save voters south of the Border from themselves.

There is a further risk that Labour, even if needing SNP votes to govern, would continue to block a referendum because they believe the SNP would never stand by as a minority Labour government falls to be replaced by the Tories.

The truth in such a scenario is that Labour would be prioritising Unionism over any of its other priorities for rebuilding the economy and creating social justice.

Who would blink first? It would certainly be an indication of the SNP’s priorities. Are they willing to go to the brink in pursuit of the referendum which still – after 10 long years – represents the best and most democratic way of winning independence?

Or are they willing to risk independence becoming a longer-term goal and prioritise saving Britain from being further ravaged by right-wing idealogues?

These are big existential questions for the SNP and for Labour. I’d put my money on Labour doing the deal. All the evidence suggests Starmer cares less about a referendum than he does about running the country.

After all, surely he’s confident of a referendum result? Isn’t he?