Biggest threat to SNP in General Election is not from Alba but Greens

That’s a fair concern given we are stuck with Westminster’s iniquitous first-past-the-post system – a voting method specifically rigged to protect the vested interests of the big Unionist parties.

After last week’s new poll suggesting Alba has crossed the 5% line in popularity, the question of split votes deserves proper consideration on all sides.

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Let’s start by recognising that the movement has been lucky in recent times in that the SNP provided a hegemonic leadership of the national cause. There was one rallying point and one party for indy supporters to vote for. Energies were directed outwards to making the case for independence, not inwards and consumed by internal factionalism. The nation and the cause benefited. No-one should be happy this state of affairs has ended.

However, we might note that it is historically unusual in nationalist struggles for one party to dominate in perpetuity. The political stakes involved, the complex tactical and strategic options to be navigated, and – above all – the reconciliation of different class interests, have all meant that national movements are usually divided to some degree or other.

The Catalan struggle has been split over the years between its Republican, leftist wing and more moderate, middle-class forces. The Irish movement for independence from Britain was long dominated by a sometimes violent division of parties and endless factional splits, which finally ended in civil war.

We also need to remember that the national movement in Scotland has had its own past feuds. The early SNP were divided for years between a moderate, devolutionist wing that saw home rule inside the UK as the best way of winning majority support and a more radical, cultural wing that wanted outright independence. As a result, the party was riven by factionalism and splits.

Later, in the 1970s, there was a fight between the 79 Group (which favoured civil disobedience and a left-wing political programme) and the SNP’s more conservative leadership under Gordon Wilson.

This even led to the (temporary) expulsion of party stalwarts such as Alex Salmond and Kenny MacAskill. In this case, common sense prevailed all round and there was a retreat from a fratricidal conflict that could have set the movement back by decades.

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What changed? Firstly, the devastation of the Scottish economy and society by Thatcher forced the entire movement to focus on defending Scotland rather than infighting. This is a lesson we should learn again. It is not a matter of who is right or wrong on doctrinal matters but how we unite around practical ways of defeating the Unionists.

Second, the onslaught of the London Unionist media post-devolution made the SNP membership much more disciplined. Few were willing to give the Unionist enemy any political ammunition.

The downside, of course, was an unwillingness to criticise the SNP leadership in public. This reticence was one of the things that fostered an atmosphere of omnipotence at party HQ. The lesson – for all nationalist parties – is that internal debate should not be sacrificed. Rank-and-file members always know a lot more than youthful “political advisers”.

As we all appreciate, the era of SNP has hegemony ended. We have returned to a more normal situation (at least historically) where the movement is divided between several parties. We need to learn to navigate in these waters. I don’t want to rehearse the debates that led us here or point a finger. I’m more concerned with where we go next.

Support for independence remains at around 50%. That is our political bedrock. But support for the SNP has dropped from around 40% to nearer 30%. Personally, I think the SNP under John Swinney will do better on July 4 than the pollsters and rabid Unionist media are claiming. But there is no doubt that around 20%of the electorate are both pro-indy and simultaneously unwilling to vote SNP.

This is the justification for Alba’s campaign. We are focused primarily on mobilising those “missing” nationalists and getting them to the polls. That’s why Alba is actually putting independence literally on the ballor paper, unlike the SNP.

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In East Lothian I’ve turned my fire against Labour’s Blairite retread Douglas Alexander – not against the SNP. I also note that John Swinney – perhaps under some pressure from Alba – has swung the SNP leftwards.

His call for a social tariff (cap) on energy bills is a straight lift from Alba. I don’t say this to score points but to underline that Swinney has taken the SNP back into traditional social-democratic territory and away from faddist identity politics.

The policy differences with Alba are fewer. Which means co-operation is possible. Alba have been pressing for a national convention that could help bring the various wings of the indy movement together. I think that is nearer.

At the same time – with the political tectonic plates shifting rapidly in the UK and Europe, as well as inside the nationalist movement – Scotland desperately needs more debate in order to clarify issues and solutions. That is another reason why Alba are standing.

It is not enough simply for Swinney and his advisers to scribble a manifesto and think that settles everything. Inevitably, Starmer will fail and Nigel Farage will lead a resurgent English populist right.

We need to debate Scotland’s response. That debate will come to a fruition at the 2026 Holyrood elections. Elections are meant to engage with the people. Perhaps some in the SNP have forgotten that.

But if Alba split the vote, won’t this be claimed as a victory by the Unionists, regardless? Will it not depress an already depressed movement?

In defence, SNP supporters should remember that the biggest threat to SNP candidates comes not from Alba but from the Greens, who are nominally pro-indy. The Greens have taken revenge for being ejected from their shiny Holyrood limos by putting up candidates in every seat.

Sitting SNP members in tight contests with Labour – such as Tommy Sheppard in Edinburgh – could lose as a result of Green intervention. On the night, if a split vote loses SNP seats it will be down to Patrick Harvie and Lorna Slater, not Alex Salmond.

And while we’re at it, standing an SNP candidate against veteran nationalist Angus Brendan MacNeil in Na h-Eileanan an Iar could well throw the seat to Labour.

So why did Swinney compound matters by turning up in the constituency on Monday to pre-announce his manifesto? John is not normally a vindictive politician but this smacks of revenge for Angus’s constant (and justified) public criticism of the SNP’s lack of a Plan B following the abortive referral of the referendum to the Supreme Court.

There’s still time for John to endorse Angus and guarantee another indy voice at Westminster. Which is, after all, the point of the exercise.

Sadly, it is now too late to have a single slate of independence candidates for this Westminster election. We have to do better next time.