One of the key matters clients have been asking since the General Election results from Scotland filtered in, is what the impact of this will have on the May 2026 Scottish Parliamentary elections, and if it is inevitable that Anas Sarwar will be marching into Bute House. So, a few reflections.

No bones about it, the SNP had a catastrophic election night, collapsing from the 48 MPs secured in 2019 to just 9 MPs, while Labour increased from its one MP north of the border to 37. Scotland’s Central Belt was turned from yellow to red, as seat after seat toppled to the “Starmer tsunami”.

However, despite Labour achieving more than four times the number of seats, this was on a meagre 5.3 per cent more of the vote when compared with the SNP – 35.3 percent for Labour versus 30.0 per cent for the SNP. Such are the vagaries of our first past-the-post voting system, which needs urgent reform, but I suspect no time soon.

Support for the SNP fell by 15 per cent from its 2019 election showing, with the vast bulk of these voters going to Labour, which saw a 16.7 per cent upswing in backing. Many of these voters, however, still support independence, which hovers at just under 50 per cent and is not going away.

READ MORE: 'Very tough time': John Swinney says sorry to SNP candidates who lost their seats

It is vital that there is a period of reflection by the SNP, with First Minister John Swinney indeed highlighting the need to “take stock”, and this including the issue of independence.

There is a clear and urgent need to refocus on economic growth and improving public services, seen by most of the Scottish populace as underperforming. In fairness, as new First Minister, Mr Swinney had already begun this process before the election was called.

His clear challenge is how to balance an activist base hungry to promote the independence message, with a public who in a cost-of-living crisis do not currently see the constitutional question as a key priority, or indeed it should be added thorny issues such as gender identity. How the issue of independence can be made relevant in addressing these issues will be crucial if the party is to deliver victory at elections to Holyrood, which are less than two years away.

This time is however a blessing in disguise, giving the SNP the opportunity to get its act together for 2026, at a time when the sheen will undoubtedly be coming off Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership. Operation Branchform, the investigation into the misuse of SNP funds, which has been dragging on for some time now, should also hopefully be resolved, in whatever manner.

This was also, it must be remembered, very much an election in which voting for Labour was positioned as the conduit to get rid of a Tory Government, a cry of anguish. Labour’s UK vote share ultimately increased by less than two per cent on 2019, while the Tories saw their vote share half.

It was therefore more a rejection of a Tory government which had been in power for more than a decade, enveloped in scandal, than an endorsement of Sir Keir Starmer’s party, whose landslide is fragile.

The UK remains mired in economic doldrums, with a weak economy and low growth. Given the tight public finances, and the maintenance of Conservative fiscal framework by Labour, the “change” promised is unlikely to materialize to a level desired by the public, leading to inevitable disillusionment. Labour, holding the keys of power at a UK level, will no longer be able to blame the Tories.

This clearly has the potential to play into SNP hands, as will potential divisions between the Labour Party north and south of the border, with the part south of the border ultimately holding the whip hand.

We boast a sophisticated electorate, who can differentiate between elections to different legislatures. It has shown that it is volatile, and is happy to switch and switch again, which may mean the swing to Labour may not be a longer-term trend. There is all to play for.

So, while the SNP may be down, it is by no means out, and it has just under two years to recover credibility and support.