SNP must be honest and reset debate on Scottish independence

This can only be done with a recognition of the failings of recent years, and clear signals about how change will be negotiated to revitalise the party and rekindle a vision of a transformed Scotland.

Honesty about independence in the current political context is crucial to that, along with an approach to policy which addresses immediate challenges at Holyrood while illustrating the vital need  for the full powers that come with self-government.

READ MORE: SNP conference can be the start of long-overdue change

The task is to move from incremental change and amelioration of the limits of devolution towards a terrain where independence becomes a logical and realistic next step, not a speculative possibility.

This can only happen by acknowledging that the political process for arriving at a Scotland with its own destiny fully in its own hands is roadblocked right now. There is no straightforward, linear “pathway” which can turn the key and unlock the prize. Anyone who pretends otherwise is fooling themselves.

Since 2014, the reality is that polling support for independence has only tipped over 50% a few times. Mostly, it has remained significantly under. Too many people are unconvinced that independence is the right path for Scotland. The removal of a toxic Tory government will make many less convinced. Simply cajoling them will not  change minds.

Nor will bleating about the failures of Labour at Westminster work while the SNP government at Holyrood stands accused of going backwards on off-peak fares and green transition, when the education attainment gap remains large, when there is a housing crisis, when further education and the fire service need urgent attention, when workers need better pay, and when people are worried about their NHS.

Quoting statistics about things being a bit better than England and Wales does not reassure people when they can see the strain and gaps for themselves.

That is why the SNP Trade Union Group, following the solid work of the STUC, is putting forward a motion at this conference calling for significant progress in ensuring that the wealthier pay more, that the reform of local government finance begins, and that we make more use of admittedly limited revenue powers to generate up to £3.7 billion of additional spending power.

This money is crucial to addressing a huge impending budget crunch. At the same time, we need to spell out why devolution is insufficient. Sustainable change and a transformed Scotland requires full powers. For the truth of the election is that the majority of the electorate were not baying for independence. They were worried about public services, the cost of living, housing, education and a host of issues that impact their everyday lives.

In that context independence seems too much like “jam tomorrow” – but with no obvious way of getting the jam out of the jar. Better to vote for the people promising change with stability than those peddling their pipe dream, many reasoned.

In this context, it is pretty evident that progress will not be made simply by shouting more loudly, waving flags on marches, demanding “independence front and centre”, repeating the presumptuous “Are you Yes yet?” question, or indulging in magical thinking about quick-fix pathways that refuse the awkwardness of needing at some point to secure and win an internationally-recognised vote if Scotland is to become an independent country.

While I sympathise emotionally with the frustration that lies behind such gestures, they are signs of desperation not hope. They are also out-of-touch.  Most people are not dyed-in-the-wool nationalists or unionists.

The unpersuaded want a secure, prosperous and fair future. So the first task is to recognise that a  road map for the political change we want will only become possible when around 55% or more of the electorate see independence in those terms, and regularly show willingness to move towards it.

How does that happen? Partly through a positive, open-minded, civic-based movement, and real engagement with the unpersuaded through citizens’ forums and assemblies – starting with those, including trade unionists, who believe in Scotland’s right to decide its constitutional future, even if they are not yet sure what choice they  will make.

Above all, we need to completely transform the debate. Away from a binary “are you Yes or No?” towards “What kind of Scotland do we wish to build together, and where does political and economic power need to lie in order to make that possible?” That is a conversation about a reliable NHS, secure income, a green and liveable future for our kids and grandkids.

It is also about being willing to look at a range of options honestly, with confidence that the case for independence becomes stronger when the issue of power over our lives is central, not abstract ideology. The SNP therefore need to invest in a truly civic and inclusive “Changing Scotland” movement, rather than seeking to run it or lead it.

READ MORE: Keir Starmer expected to warn 'things will get worse before they get better'

But its primary task at this conference is to acknowledge the message of the electorate, to show that it is willing to be bold at Holyrood and correct its failures, to think about how it does politics differently and builds a fresh vision for Scotland, and to show it can address governance and inner-party democracy with real urgency.

None of that can be achieved in one weekend. But fresh paths and a new attitude can and must be signalled.

Simon Barrow is director of the think tank Ekklesia and co-editor and co-author of five books of Scottish politics. He is national secretary of the SNP Trade Union Group.