Promising start – now can we go far enough fast enough?

His pre-conference scene-setter is indeed laden with warnings of doom. Not for the first time he exaggerates to make his point. And not for the first time there’s something in what he says. So, I was keen to catch the mood and tone of the conference to test whether his assumptions were accurate. Are the SNP capable of learning from the bruising experience of the General Election and making changes sufficient to regroup in 2016?

There’s something of a paradox in Robin’s prescription. He criticises those in the party arguing that we need a new, charismatic leader, saying that the SNP have for too long relied on able communicators and now need someone focused on systematic reform of policy and practice. Yet a few paragraphs later, Robin writes: “I believe that means changing the leader now to at least try to give the impression that a new generation of the SNP is ready to take over.”

READ MORE: John Swinney says it’s ‘time for SNP to step up’ in conference speech

He is right, of course, in saying that parties often react to defeat with denial, citing examples aplenty where those responsible investigate their own performance before concluding that things are basically OK.

But on the evidence of this weekend’s discussion, I’d said that would be an unfair conclusion to draw about the response of party leaders and activists to what happened on July 4.

This was a smaller conference than those in recent years. The vestigial delegate entitlement in the SNP constitution from the days before it was a mass party means there’s never a full complement of delegates at these events. But there were fewer than before, a sign that some previous volunteers are demotivated. There were even a few who stayed away in protest at the own goal of a government minister meeting the Israeli government while it prosecutes genocide in Gaza (an error corrected by the conference by a robust emergency resolution in support of Palestine).

So, it might be the case that if the people who are most pissed off decline to attend, the mood of those who do turn up might be skewed in a more uncritical direction.

If so, that was not obvious on the weekend’s showing.

Conference began with a half-day internal discussion on the election. The media and observers were excluded, leaving delegates free to be candid with each other without worrying that their every syllable would be misinterpreted by commentators determined to put a negative spin on their narrative.

I expressed the hope last week that we could strike the right balance between a robust, reflective discussion and staying wheest for fear of rocking the boat. That we could find a way to be honest and frank without degenerating into fractious division and taking lumps out of each other. I think we made a good start.

John Swinney struck a thoughtful balance, fronting a collective mea culpa on behalf of the leadership, and eschewing the self-pity that can lead to inertia and inaction. He looked to me like someone who knows things have to change and who is prepared to do it.

(Image: Jane Barlow/PA Wire)

He might well be the man to perform the role Robin says is now required. And most of the delegates echoed this frank assessment, with only a few still clinging on to the hope that it wasn’t really as bad as it looked, that at 30%, our vote share was one of our best-ever performances in the history of the party. This is delusional, of course, and most of the others know it.

July produced our worst electoral setback ever and 30% is piss-poor when you consider that four out of 10 people abstained. Moreover, the people who did vote for us included not a few who had to have their arm twisted hard and who are hanging on to the party by their fingernails.

In a strange way this collective understanding and admission of defeat created a positive and supportive atmosphere, making the 90th annual conference a weirdly pleasant event to be at. There were packed fringes, energetic debates, and a series of policies adopted re-affirming the party’s social democratic credentials.

(Image: Jane Barlow/PA)

So, things are moving, and in the right direction. We shall see if this self-reflection is sustained and if we can go far enough and fast enough.

Various factors make this unpredictable. The level of distrust and abstention among the people, and the ever-increasing transience of their political affiliation mean things happen more quickly than before.

The speed of Labour’s betrayal of electoral promises has taken even their harshest critics by surprise and the disarray and rupture of the right mean the political turbulence is far from quietened. That will present threats and opportunities for the SNP. But on this weekend’s showing we look as if we might see them coming.