IT was only a decade ago but how the world has changed. There are children at school today who never knew the old not-very-United Kingdom.
For, amazingly enough, is almost exactly 10 years since the 2014 referendum was held that secured Scottish independence and the re-establishment of our ancient statehood after 307 long years.
The margin was close – 2,001,926 votes (55.3%) for independence against 1,617,989 (44.7%) in favour of staying in the Union. But Scotland had made its choice to command its own destiny.
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There will be celebrations this Saturday on the actual anniversary. President Brian Cox will officiate. Foreign dignitaries will be at the fireworks display at Edinburgh Castle, including the new British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer.
First Minister Alex Salmond (below) will be there to enjoy a final moment in the spotlight before retiring from Holyrood. The race to succeed him has begun.
Scotland has been transformed in the years since 2014. Flower of Scotland was played 13 times at the Paris Olympics. The old Scottish cringe has been replaced with a new confidence. Population has grown to 6.5 million with the nation’s new-found ability to encourage immigration. Some 100,000 Ukrainians are our latest new citizens.
Thankfully we have escaped the race riots that have recently disfigured our southern neighbour. And the rise in population has not only boosted the economy but it also set off a housing boom.
One of the most visible differences from 2014 is the money “in your pocket”. With the introduction of the Scottish pound in 2019, a new Scottish currency was born. There were initial teething troubles – everyone remembers the computer glitch that infected the new electronic “wallets”, as Scots money went all-digital. But the new currency transformed the economy.
Official foreign currency reserves at the new Scottish Central Bank soared as a result of strong energy and whisky exports. This triggered a rise in the exchange value of the new currency.
This in turn reduced import prices, lowering the cost of living. It also attracted more inward investment as the value of Scottish assets rose. Scotland became a haven for foreign investors, while Edinburgh fund managers – initially opposed to independence – found themselves at the heart of a “second Switzerland”.
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The strong Scottish pound also had a transformative impact on the national finances. As part of the independence negotiations, the English Treasury demanded that newly independent Scotland take on a disproportional amount of the old UK’s national debt.
This was rejected by First Minister Salmond and there was a tense stand-off as Scotland threatened to disavow any responsibility for England’s debts – a position substantiated by international legal precedent.
However, a compromise was reached which kept Anglo-Scottish friendship (and important trading arrangements) intact while showing the rest of the world that the new nation was willing to act in a manner that stabilised international relations. It was in nobody’s interests to let a dysfunctional English economy wreck Europe.
The eventual compromise that Salmond negotiated – trading some of Scotland’s share of fixed UK public assets in lieu of the notional share of UK debts – meant that Scottish finances began life with a clean balance sheet and Scottish taxpayers were not saddled with England’s liabilities.
One canard that independence exposed was the lie that indy Scotland would suffer a crippling annual deficit that would force up taxes and lead to austerity. Set against the subsequent shambles that is the English public finances, the forecast that Scotland “could not afford independence” now looks laughable.
As a decade of experience has proved beyond doubt, the infamous notional deficit predicted by the insidious and wholly fictional GERS accounting system never materialised in practice. Under the old devolution settlement, Holyrood administrations were forced to balance their books. The only “deficit” came from adding in the misspending of London governments. With the disappearance of London rule, Scotland set its own taxation, spending and borrowing rules.
Certainly, post-indy Holyrood governments have borrowed to fund economic reconstruction but it has been gratifying to see ordinary Scots citizens – rather than City of London spivs – buying Scottish bonds.
It has taken the best part of a decade but the rate of economic growth has climbed from a desperate, sub-optimal 1.5% to 5% and rising. This has been achieved by post-indy Scottish governments being free to invest long term without the erratic, short-termism previously imposed by Westminster.
Also, Holyrood now has the power to force foreign energy companies to use local manufacturing and local workers in building North Sea renewables. In the old days, Scotland received virtually no employment benefits from the vast investment in renewable energy.
Now we have jobs and a new Scottish National Sovereign Wealth Fund to ensure that wastingpreviously wasted assets are transformed into long-term holdings that generate an annual income in perpetuity. These are the tangible benefits of national sovereignty.
There have been bumps in the road. The English vote to leave the European Union ( or “Exit” as the English media dubbed it) had serious consequences for Anglo-Scottish relations, compounded by several years of political chaos at Westminster and the serial incompetence of Boris Johnson.
Indy Scotland transitioned quickly to full EU membership as it was already embedded in the European Union economically and politically. But the English secession from the EU threatened to create new trade barriers.
The current (temporary?) settlement sees special trading arrangements for Scotland with England and for Northern Ireland with Europe. Scots also share exactly the same social arrangements that the Irish Republic has with England, including the right to work, study and vote in certain elections, and equal access to welfare benefits and health services.
Scotland’s exit from the Union had inevitable consequences for the rest of the UK. Scottish independence unleashed centrifugal political forces throughout the British Isles, not least in England itself.
Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will hold a border poll soon. Current evidence is that the north will vote to exit the UK and rejoin the south, fulfilling the age-old desire for Irish unity. This inevitability has led to a debate about future relationships between the sovereign states of this Atlantic Archipelago.
We are likely to see some formal economic and security arrangements emerge between Scotland, England, Ireland and Wales – perhaps also eventually Cornwall. Change is perpetually the order of the day. Independence increased tensions between the Highlands and Islands and the richer Central Belt. There are calls for more powers to be decentralised to rural Scotland.
A decade of freedom has also seen the first glimmerings of popular discontent with SNP rule at Holyrood. Shorn of English tutelage, the Scottish Labour Party has swung leftwards and is garnering fresh support. There is even talk of Gordon Brown running for president in the 2027 election.
A poll for the 10th anniversary of Scottish independence asked folk how they would vote today in a referendum to rejoin England.
The result was very predictable: 87% said they would vote keep independence.
It could all have been so very different if we had voted to remain in the UK in 2014. But that would have been daft.
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Callum Baird, Editor of The National
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